Bitcoin could also be shaping a bottoming construction that appears just like the formation seen on the finish of the 2018 bear market, in accordance with crypto analyst Osemka. After reviewing previous macro lows, the analyst is of the notion that the present Bitcoin setup shouldn’t be just like the 2022 cycle however as an alternative is nearer to the drawn-out descending sample that preceded BTC’s worth motion in 2019.
The comparability is predicated on a falling resistance construction, a possible liquidity sweep under $60,000, a bear market backside, and the event of a bullish divergence on a number of timeframes.
Descending Construction Factors To Bear Market Backside
Bitcoin is at present buying and selling round $65,000, that means it has dropped by about half from its October 2025 peak worth of $126,080. By that measure, BTC has already entered bearish territory, and investor sentiment of utmost worry additionally helps that view.
In an evaluation posted on X, Osemka defined that after reviewing all main macro lows on Bitcoin, the present setup resembles the 2018 bear market backside extra intently than the 2022 bear market backside. The chart he shared exhibits a descending sample with a falling blue trendline that connects successive decrease highs made by Bitcoin’s worth motion in February.
The construction exhibits worth buying and selling under the descending resistance, very similar to the late-2018 setting when Bitcoin continued to grind decrease. Based on the analyst, the current sample seems to be forming an analogous liquidity setup, and Bitcoin’s worth is anticipated to steadily bleed decrease earlier than a closing decisive transfer.
Bitcoin Value Chart. Supply: @Osemka8 on X
Liquidity Hunt To $60,000, 3D Bullish Divergence As Backside Sign
An necessary a part of Osemka’s backside prediction is the opportunity of a liquidity sweep slightly below $60,000. The chart features a dotted horizontal line close to that degree as a draw back goal the place resting liquidity could sit.
The thought is that if Bitcoin continues to comply with the 2018 worth motion, then it might proceed to fall and briefly dip under $60,000, which might then take in sell-side liquidity earlier than stabilizing. If a comparable liquidity hunt unfolds, it might full the descending sample. Till then, the analyst’s message is persistence.
One other main issue highlighted within the chart is the formation of a 3D bullish divergence. It is a case the place BTC prints decrease lows throughout a number of time frames, however a momentum indicator like RSI, MACD, or Stochastic makes the next low.
On the time of writing, Bitcoin is buying and selling at $65,100 and is barely a 7.8% correction transfer away from breaking under $60,000. Bitcoin is more and more liable to breaking under this degree, with the worry and greed index at an excessive worry degree of 11. This development is mirrored in persistent outflows from US Spot Bitcoin ETFs. The funds have now recorded 5 straight weeks of web withdrawals.
Featured picture created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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