Bitcoin’s (BTC) community hash fee has dropped 4% during the last 30 days, marking the sharpest decline in almost 2 years.
On the similar time, elevated volatility and a decline in costs spotlight mounting stress amongst miners as income dwindle. Nonetheless, in response to funding administration agency VanEck, the miner capitulation could sign a backside.
Bitcoin Mining Energy Falls as Value Weak point and China Shutdowns Hit Community
VanEck’s mid-December 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck report highlighted that 4% dip within the community hashing energy was the most important since April 2024. The contraction comes amid a troublesome month for Bitcoin, with the worth sliding round 9%.
Moreover, volatility has spiked, pushing 30-day realized volatility above 45%, the best stage seen since April 2025.
“We sometimes anticipate the speed to drop throughout massive pullbacks in Bitcoin worth,” Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush wrote.
Past price-related pressures, Bitcoin’s hash fee was additionally affected by developments in China. Final week, BeInCrypto reported that roughly 400,000 machines had been pressured offline in China’s Xinjiang province.
The shutdown eradicated an estimated 1.3 GW of capability and had a sizeable influence on the community. China’s computing energy dropped by round 100 exahashes per second inside 24 hours.
“That is seemingly as a result of shifting the facility era to AI demand and should consequence within the elimination of as much as 10% of Bitcoin community hashing energy,” the analysts famous.
In the meantime, miner economics have additionally worsened as a result of Bitcoin’s worth efficiency. In line with VanEck, the breakeven electrical energy worth on a 2022-era Bitmain S19 XP miner decreased from $0.12 in December 2024 to $0.077 by mid-December 2025, representing a 36% drop. Sigel and Bush added that,
“Whereas profitability for miners has been poor not too long ago, many entities proceed to mine regardless of durations of poor economics as a result of they consider in Bitcoin’s future. To assist the long-term hash fee of the Bitcoin community, we consider as much as 13 nations are mining with assist from their central governments.”
Historic Knowledge Indicators Bullish Flip
Regardless of the current stress, VanEck famous that declining hash fee may very well be a “bullish contrarian sign.” Primarily based on knowledge since 2014, the report discovered that Bitcoin’s ahead returns have tended to be stronger when the community hash fee is contracting.
The 90-day ahead BTC returns had been constructive about 65% of the time when the hash fee had declined over the prior 30 days, in contrast with 54% in periods of rising hash fee.
As well as, common 180-day ahead returns had been barely larger when the hash fee was falling, at roughly 20.5%, in comparison with about 20.2% when it was growing. The sample holds over the long run as nicely.
“Throughout the 346 days since 2014, when the 90-day hash fee development was damaging, 180-day ahead BTC returns had been constructive (77%) of the time, with a median return of (+72%). Outdoors of these days, 180-day ahead BTC returns had been constructive (~61%) of the time and averaged (+48%),” the analysts revealed.
Technical Patterns Assist Backside Formation
On the technical entrance, market watchers have additionally been outlining potential backside indicators. Market analysts, together with Ted Pillows, have recognized a 3-day bullish divergence for Bitcoin, a sample that marked market bottoms in its final two appearances.
“BTC 3D bullish divergence is now confirmed. When this occurred the final 2 instances, Bitcoin fashioned a backside,” Pillows acknowledged.
The three-day bullish divergence has locked in.
On this cycle, that often meant the underside is in.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/se0rCjI8OG
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) December 22, 2025
Whether or not Bitcoin finally sees one other transfer larger stays unsure. For now, the main cryptocurrency stays underneath stress. BeInCrypto Markets knowledge confirmed that Bitcoin was buying and selling at $88,066 at press time, down 1.01% over the previous 24 hours.
The submit Bitcoin Hash Price Falls 4% Amid Miner Stress: What Does It Imply for the Value appeared first on BeInCrypto.
