Gordon Johnson of the Wall Avenue analyst agency GJL Analysis had few phrases of consolation for his followers and even fewer of reward for the Federal Reserve as soon as the February import costs knowledge got here out on March 25.
Particularly, figures confirmed that import costs within the second month of 2026 rose by 1.3% and export costs by 1.5%, whereas the anticipated change for each was at 0.6%. Johnson took specific be aware of the truth that the rise covers the interval earlier than the beginning of the Iran conflict, implying dread about how the March numbers may look given the oil costs.
Moreover, the GJL Analysis professional extrapolated that, when annualized, the February knowledge hints at an inflation fee between 16.8% and 19.6%. For comparability, the inflationary wave that adopted the COVID-19 pandemic by no means crossed far above 8%, with stated report being set in 2022.
Moreover, the very best annual inflation the U.S. confronted since 1960 was recorded at 13.5% in 1980, per the 64-year knowledge Finbold retrieved from the Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis (FRED) on March 26, 2026.
Wall Avenue professional urges Fed to extend rates of interest ‘now’
Elsewhere, Gordon Johnson opined that the singular treatment for the scenario can be ‘a whole lot of foundation factors of hikes,’ and emphasised urgency by stating such a transfer must be made instantly, implying the Fed shouldn’t anticipate the following scheduled assembly.
Maybe much more alarmingly, the Wall Avenue analyst concluded that America’s central financial institution ‘isn’t behind the curve,’ however that it’s, moderately, ‘not even on the sector.’ He additionally famous that ‘this ends badly,’ referring to each the confirmed February figures and the anticipated March numbers.
🚨BREAKING: Feb. import costs +1.3% (vs. est. +0.6%). Export costs +1.5% (vs. est. +0.6%). Annualized: 16.8%–19.6% inflation. That is earlier than oil ran 50%. The Fed is not behind the curve – it is not even on the sector. A whole lot of foundation factors of hikes wanted, now. This ends badly. pic.twitter.com/oHiKs73hg5
— Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) March 25, 2026
Notably, Gordon Johnson’s studying of the scenario within the U.S. economic system mirrors virtually precisely the response provided by the highest economist Peter Schiff.
Certainly, Schiff, in an X submit revealed at an identical time, equally opined that the figures are exceptionally alarming and warned that, barring a direct rate of interest hike amounting to a number of hundred foundation factors, the U.S. is ‘headed for a full-blown monetary disaster.’
Are additional rate of interest hikes in 2026 doubtless?
Apparently, the reactions of the Wall Avenue analyst and the economist are, in essence, a twisted mirror picture of President Donald Trump’s beforehand expressed wishes.
Particularly, since 2026 began, the commander-in-chief repeatedly urged the Fed to deal with rates of interest instantly – as in, to not anticipate the scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) conferences – although his purpose has persistently been to decrease rates of interest.
Nonetheless, irrespective of the political wishes of the varied key actors, traders look like pricing in additional rate of interest hikes because of the results the continued Iran conflict has been having on the worldwide economic system.
Featured picture through Shutterstock
