Bitcoin has a method of turning numbers into recollections.
You bear in mind the primary time it ripped by a spherical quantity, $10k, $20k, $100k, you bear in mind the temper shift when it stops rewarding optimism, you bear in mind the quiet weeks when each bounce looks like a lure, and the loud ones when it looks like the ground has vanished.
This cycle’s defining reminiscence goes to be $126,000.
That’s the excessive I anchored on, the second the tape stopped behaving like an uptrend and regarded extra like a distribution.
I laid that case in October after I wrote that the bear market cycle had began at $126k, and the market has been doing what it typically does after a cycle peak, it bleeds confidence first, then it bleeds value.
As I write this, Bitcoin is down roughly 51% from that cycle excessive.
On the chart, the present drawdown appears to be like acquainted sufficient to make you uncomfortable.
I went again by the prior main cycles and pulled each roughly 50% drop from an all time excessive, then I checked out what occurred subsequent.
The form isn’t an identical, the drivers change, the plumbing adjustments, the members change, but the human sample repeats, denial, discount bounces, then the second individuals cease asking “is it over” and begin asking “how low can it go.”
In 2018, after Bitcoin was already down round 50% from the height, it fell one other roughly 70% earlier than the true cycle backside was in.
In 2022, the subsequent leg down after a 50% drawdown was smaller, nearer to 50%.
For those who take that diminishing severity at face worth, the subsequent “after 50” leg this cycle could possibly be nearer to 30%, greatest case, and if it behaves extra just like the previous regime, it might nonetheless be a lot worse.
That vary, one other 30% to a different 70% from right here, is huge sufficient to be pretty ineffective by itself, however it does give us a path.
The entire level of writing about bear markets is to slender the issue down into one thing human, one thing you may put together for, one thing you may watch in actual time with out shedding your thoughts.
That’s what this piece is for, to attach what I’ve written by this cycle with what the historic drawdown patterns present, then translate it into sensible medium time period ranges and eventualities, with a transparent set of alerts that might power me to vary my thoughts.
The second I ended trusting the cycle, and why the chart nonetheless issues
Earlier than the $126k excessive, I spent lots of time eager about time.
Bitcoin has a cycle clock, it’s imperfect, it’s typically mocked, it’s nonetheless one of many few frameworks that may hold you grounded when all the pieces round you is noise.
In September 2025 I wrote that the cycle clock pointed to a closing excessive by late October, with the actual query being whether or not ETFs would rewrite historical past. That piece was me making an attempt to carry two truths without delay, the cycle has rhythm, and the construction of this cycle is totally different.
Lower than three weeks later, I ended dancing round it. I wrote that point was up maing the case that the highest was in and the bear market cycle began at $126k. It was a line within the sand, as a result of I’ve discovered the onerous method that peak markets don’t really feel like peaks, they really feel like they’re getting began.
Now we take pleasure in knowledge, and a chart that may be interrogated with out ego. Utilizing the weekly BTC chart, I marked the cycle tops utilizing the height week highs, then I tracked the drawdowns utilizing the next weekly lows. It’s the similar methodology for 2017 to 2018, 2021 to 2022, and 2025 to at present.
Here’s what that research says in plain language.
In 2017, the height week excessive was about $19.8k, the underside week low was round $3.1k, an 84% peak to trough collapse.
In 2021, the height week excessive was about $69k, the underside week low was round $15.5k, a 78% peak to trough collapse.
In 2025, the height week excessive was about $126.2k, and the bottom weekly low thus far is round $60.1k, a 52% drawdown thus far.
Whereas the chart cannot inform you the long run, it might probably inform you the regime you might be in. A 52% drawdown from a cycle excessive isn’t a brand new state for Bitcoin, it’s a acquainted stage of the method.
The uncomfortable half is what tends to occur subsequent, as a result of within the prior two cycles, “down 50” was nearer to the center than the top.
That’s the reason I hold coming again to ranges and circumstances, reasonably than making an attempt to win the argument with a single quantity.
The extent map I gave you, and what it was making an attempt to guard you from
In November, as soon as the cycle excessive was within the rear view mirror, I wrote a bit that was intentionally sensible, Bitcoin to $73k, be ready with the value ranges to look at throughout a bear market. It was my try to translate a scary vary into stepping stones.
That map had a transparent staircase.
First, the market needed to cope with $85k, the form of stage that sits within the collective reminiscence as a line between “it is a correction” and “that is one thing else.”
Then there was $73k, a stage that issues as a result of it’s psychologically necessary and structurally necessary, it sits close to a previous regime, it’s the place you’ll anticipate dip consumers to make a stand, and the place you’ll anticipate sellers to check whether or not the bid is actual.
Under that, I highlighted $49.8k because the lowest important shelf, the form of quantity that begins exhibiting up in long run charts as a magnet when the market is searching for a spot to be mistaken in public.
A number of days later I went additional, and put my very own identify on a medium time period bear thesis, that Bitcoin might fall to $49k, and that this winter could possibly be the shortest but. That piece was not only a value name, it was a framework with eventualities, a delicate touchdown case, a base case, and a deep reduce case, plus a set of flip ranges that might inform us which path we had been on.
Then January arrived, and I defined how the month delivered regarding purple flags, particularly as a result of the plumbing was already straining.
That phrase, the plumbing, is the place the target a part of the story sits.
Worth is the headline. Plumbing is the half that breaks you in a bear market, as a result of it turns an orderly selloff right into a cascade. It’s the distinction between a dip that looks like a chance and a dip that looks like a warning.
So the medium time period query turns into easy to ask, onerous to reply, and really private for anybody holding danger, does value catch all the way down to the damaged plumbing, or does the plumbing heal earlier than we print the deeper ranges?
The drawdown patterns, and why I hold speaking about diminishing declines
Once I in contrast prior drawdowns after Bitcoin had already fallen about 50% from a peak, I used to be not making an attempt to create a magical formulation. I used to be making an attempt to quantify a sense, that every cycle has had a distinct form of ache.
Within the 2017 to 2018 bear market, when you had been already down round 50% from the highest, there was nonetheless a brutal quantity of air under the market. Within the 2021 to 2022 bear market, the extra decline after that midpoint was smaller, nonetheless nasty, nonetheless sufficient to harm, but much less violent than the prior cycle.
Within the research I constructed from the information, the “extra after minus 50” decline was roughly 68% within the 2017 to 2018 cycle, and roughly 55% within the 2021 to 2022 cycle.
So sure, it’s cheap to ask whether or not that extra leg shrinks once more.
If it shrinks once more, you get a quantity that looks like a greatest case draw back path from right here, round one other 30% decrease from present ranges. That’s the logic behind the vary, one other 30% to a different 70% from right here, relying on whether or not historical past repeats softly or harshly.
The issue is that “from right here” is a transferring goal, and bear markets are not often well mannered. They don’t descend in a straight line. They punish conviction on each side. They create rallies that really feel like salvation, and dumps that arrive proper after individuals are positive the worst is over.
So I don’t need to promote you a single forecast. Medium time period targets make sense contained in the historic envelope, and provide the circumstances that might shift likelihood from one state of affairs to a different.
Medium time period targets, three eventualities, and what would power a rethink
Right here is the cleanest method I can body it, utilizing the extent map from my November items, the recognized drawdowns, and the plumbing alerts I flagged in January.
Situation 1, the delicate touchdown, $56k to $60k
That is the case the place the market has already performed a lot of the emotional work. It’s down 50%, it has washed out late longs, it has scared weak arms, and now it transitions right into a shorter winter.
I sketched this as a “delicate touchdown” band within the thesis as a result of Bitcoin can completely backside greater than the doomers anticipate when structural demand stays alive.
What would make this state of affairs really feel actual is shift within the underlying alerts.
In that very same thesis I laid out “flip ranges” that matter greater than vibes, ETF movement conduct, payment share in miner income, and hashprice stability. For those who see sustained enchancment there, the percentages of a better low enhance, and the market spends much less time searching for a dramatic backside.
Situation 2, the bottom case, $49k
That is nonetheless my major medium time period goal, for one motive that issues in bear markets, it’s the stage that makes the most individuals really feel sick, however it has extraordinarily robust historic help. Manner again in 2021-2022, the mid-$40ks was the place institutional shopping for hit fever pitch and it was repeatedly defended.
Bear market lows are social occasions. They’re the purpose the place narratives break. A $49k print would try this, particularly for everybody who anchored their psychology to 6 figures.
In my November stage map, I known as $49.8k the bottom important shelf, in that piece, after which within the medium time period thesis I made the case for $49k as the bottom state of affairs, and I stored monitoring that path into January because the plumbing started flashing extra warnings, on this replace.
That is additionally the place the historic drawdown envelope stays trustworthy. A transfer to $49k from a $126k excessive would nonetheless be a smaller general decline than 2018 and 2022, it matches the diminishing severity theme, whereas nonetheless respecting the way in which Bitcoin tends to punish complacency.
Situation 3, the deep reduce, $36k to $42k
I included this vary within the authentic thesis for a motive, it’s the state of affairs you must know exists, even when you do not need to stay in it.
A deep reduce is what occurs when the market reprices danger in addition to confidence within the construction, and that may come from any mixture of persistent outflows, miner stress, payment droughts, and macro shocks.
In my thesis I framed this as a late 2026 into early 2027 danger, not as a close to time period certainty, and that timing issues, as a result of deep bottoms are usually a course of, not a day.
That is additionally the state of affairs that makes the historic analogy really feel extra like 2018, an extended grind decrease with one closing capitulation that no one believes till it arrives.
The $73k query, why it issues, and why it’s not the end line
I need to return to $73k, as a result of it’s the stage most individuals ought to emotionally latch onto.
In that November piece I wrote about “Bitcoin to $73k” as a result of I wished readers to have a plan for the primary main battle. That battle is the place dip consumers present up loudly, the place influencers rediscover conviction, the place bears take revenue, and the place the market decides whether or not it’s coping with an air pocket or a staircase.
If Bitcoin retakes $73k and the plumbing improves on the similar time, the market can stabilize greater than individuals anticipate.
If Bitcoin fails to regain $73k and the plumbing continues to fray, then $56k to $60k begins to really feel like the subsequent critical vacation spot, and $49k stops sounding dramatic and begins sounding mechanical.
That’s the actual worth of ranges in a bear market, they assist you flip panic into checklists.
What would make me change my thoughts rapidly
I don’t assume readers want one other listing of scary numbers. They should know what to look at to allow them to keep sane.
The flips I care about are the identical ones I specified by the medium time period thesis, and flagged once more within the January replace.
- If ETF movement conduct adjustments, if the market begins absorbing provide on purple days, if the reflex to promote rallies weakens, that issues.
- If miner economics enhance, if payment share turns into meaningfully supportive once more, if hashprice stabilizes reasonably than printing new stress lows, that issues.
- If these issues enhance whereas value continues to be within the hazard zone, then the likelihood weight shifts away from the deep reduce and towards the delicate touchdown.
- If these issues don’t enhance, and value retains breaking helps cleanly, then the bottom case turns into a magnet, and the deep reduce stays a tail danger you retain on the desk.
That’s the level of a framework, it forces you to be trustworthy when the market adjustments.
Closing, the human a part of the bear market
I’ve lived by sufficient Bitcoin cycles to know that the toughest half is the ready, not the drop.
It’s the weeks the place nothing occurs, and also you begin imagining the worst, it’s the weeks the place one thing occurs and also you persuade your self it’s over, it’s the second you understand your time horizon was shorter than you advised your self it was.
Proper now, we’re within the a part of the cycle the place the market has already performed sufficient harm to really feel like a bear market, and never sufficient harm to fulfill historical past’s harshest variations of what comes subsequent. That’s the reason you see individuals arguing with such certainty, as a result of uncertainty is exhausting.
So right here is my trustworthy learn, primarily based on what I wrote on the time, what the historic drawdowns present, and what the plumbing has been signaling.
$73k is a battle, $56k to $60k is a check of whether or not this winter actually is shorter, $49k is the bottom case shelf that might match a diminishing decline cycle, and $36k to $42k is the deep reduce state of affairs that solely turns into doubtless if the inner stress stays damaged for longer than most individuals are ready for.
I don’t should be proper concerning the actual quantity to be helpful, I should be early sufficient that can assist you put together, and versatile sufficient to confess when the market invalidates the framework.
That’s what I’ll hold doing, chart in a single hand, plumbing gauges within the different, making an attempt to remain goal whereas Bitcoin does what Bitcoin does.
This evaluation displays my private market framework and interpretation of historic knowledge. Nothing on this article must be taken as funding recommendation, nor a advice to purchase or promote any asset. Readers ought to make their very own selections primarily based on their danger tolerance and circumstances.
