My $49k Bitcoin bear thesis, a January check-in, the plumbing is flashing whereas worth bleeds
I wrote my medium-term $49,000 bear thesis in late November with one easy concept, Bitcoin nonetheless strikes in cycles, and the following actual “that is the low” second tends to reach when miner economics and flows line up on the identical time.
It’s now Jan. 30, 2026, and the trustworthy replace is that this, the variables I care about look extra confused than they did after I revealed, and the tape has not delivered the type of panic worth print that makes these variables matter to everybody without delay.
Considerably paradoxically, my ‘medium-term bear thesis’ was meant to be long-term bullish. The concept being that we might get a brief, sharp bear market with max ache adopted by a sustained, multi-year bull run. Nonetheless, the value is not fairly matching with the indicators proper now.
Bitcoin is hovering across the low $80,000s (after falling to $81,000 in a single day) as I write this, which suggests my high-$40ks zone has not even become visible but.
That disconnect is the story.
As a result of beneath the value, the elements of the system that pay for Bitcoin’s safety, and the elements that transfer institutional measurement, are performing like winter already arrived.
The winter feeling is coming from charges, not the chart
Begin with the safety funds, as a result of that was my authentic “fragility” declare.
On Jan. 29, miners earned about $37.22 million in every day income.
On the identical date, whole transaction charges paid per day had been about $260,550.
Do the mathematics and also you get the temper music, charges are roughly 0.7% of miner income.
That isn’t “charges are weak,” that’s “charges are mainly absent,” within the sense that the charge market is contributing virtually nothing to the price of securing the chain on a day-to-day foundation.
Even the reside mempool image appears to be like sleepy. The projected next-block median charge fee is round 0.12 to 0.14 sat/vB proper now.
So when folks ask why I hold circling again to miner economics, it’s as a result of that is what a charge flooring failing appears to be like like in actual time. The community leans on issuance, issuance steps down on schedule, and every thing else has to choose up the slack later.
The ETF window has been a gradual leak, with a number of ugly gulps
The second leg of my framework was stream elasticity, the concept that the ETF period creates a clear, mechanical approach to see danger urge for food flip.
In January, that elasticity has been pointing within the unsuitable route.
On Farside, the previous couple of weeks present a number of heavy outflow prints, together with -$708.7M on Jan. 21 and -$817.8M on Jan. 29.
Complete web flows are additionally adverse at -$1.095B year-to-date. That issues greater than any single day as a result of it adjustments the psychology of dips. Within the soft-landing model of my thesis, the tape will get help from persistent dip shopping for by the ETF pipe. Proper now, the pipe has been taking water out.
There have been large inexperienced days earlier within the month too, Jan. 13 at +$753.8M and Jan. 14 at +$840.6M, and people are actual, however the late-month stream prints have been the sort you’re feeling on a desk.
In the event you commerce for a residing, you understand this sensation, worth holds up, the internals begin to rot, and everybody retains in search of the second the chart lastly displays what the plumbing has been saying.
Hashrate is wobbling, miners are adapting, and that adaptation adjustments conduct
One other piece of the setup is miner elasticity.
Hashrate remains to be large, however it has been swinging. On Jan. 29 the every day common is roughly 901 EH/s, down from earlier peaks this month.
That by itself doesn’t equal capitulation, and I’m not making an attempt to drive a dramatic story onto routine variance. It does match the broader level, miners now have extra knobs to show.
An important knob is the one no person talked about in prior cycles, AI and HPC internet hosting.
When a miner indicators long-duration compute offers, that enterprise begins to look much less like a pure BTC margin machine and extra like an influence, land, and infrastructure operator that occurs to mine Bitcoin.
TeraWulf put that shift in daring print when it introduced two 10-year HPC colocation agreements with Fluidstack for 200+ MW, with Google backstopping a big portion of obligations and receiving an fairness stake, per the corporate’s personal launch.
Riot has been exploring the identical route, together with a proper analysis to probably repurpose important capability for AI and HPC, based on DataCenterDynamics.
This issues for Bitcoin market construction as a result of it adjustments the incentives round hashrate on the lows.
A miner with a second income stream can behave in another way underneath stress. They may curtail or redirect capability with out fast existential strain, they may shield liquidity for buildouts, they may promote BTC extra mechanically to fund capex, they may merely cease caring about marginal hashprice in the way in which a pure miner as soon as did.
That’s the elasticity I used to be pointing at, and it’s beginning to present up within the information’s tone even whereas worth sits excessive.
So what’s the “state of the thesis” proper now
Right here is the cleanest manner I can say it in a single breath.
The charge flooring appears to be like damaged, ETF flows have been risk-off for weeks, and the miner enterprise mannequin is evolving in a manner that may amplify reflexive conduct throughout drawdowns.
These are the situations I wrote about.
The lacking ingredient is the half folks bear in mind, the chart dumping into the zone the place panic turns into stock switch.
Bitcoin at $82k doesn’t drive anybody to make that call. A print within the $40ks would.
That’s the reason this replace is much less about worth targets and extra about stress. The system is constructing stress.
| State of affairs | Backside Value (USD) | Timing Window | Path Form | Key Triggers Into Low (Jan 30, 2026 standing) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 49,000 | Q1–Q2 2026 | 2–3 sharp legs decrease, basing | ✅ Hashprice spot sub-$40/PH/day ✅ Charge% of miner income < 10% (excessive, ~<1% on newest prints) ✅ 20D ETF flows adverse (web outflows over the past 20 buying and selling days) ⚠️ “Forwards sub-$40 for weeks” depends upon whether or not you deal with spot because the proxy, forwards have a near-dated hump |
| Delicate-landing | 56,000–60,000 | H2 2025 | Single flush, vary | ❌ Charge% > 15% sustained (reverse, charges are very low) ❌ Secure hashrate (has proven significant variance this month) ❌ Blended to optimistic ETF flows on down days (late-Jan confirmed heavy outflows) |
| Deep minimize | 36,000–42,000 | Late 2026–Q1 2027 | Waterfall, quick | ⚠️ Macro risk-off (not a single on-chain metric, combined sign outdoors this desk) ✅ Charge drought (supported by charges and feerates) ⚠️ Miner misery (not “capitulation,” however stress seen by way of low hashprice) ⚠️ Persistent ETF outflows (latest window adverse, “persistent” over longer horizon nonetheless TBD) |
The human-interest angle folks miss, miners are operating two firms without delay
Once you scale back this to “charges are down,” it feels like a chart observe.
In actual life it appears to be like like operators making an attempt to maintain the lights on, negotiating energy contracts, planning buildouts, courting AI clients, juggling shareholders, and nonetheless needing to compete in essentially the most brutal hash race on earth.
A low-fee atmosphere doesn’t simply weaken the safety funds, it forces miners to get artistic, and creativity introduces new behaviors into the market.
The bottom-case bear I described in November was at all times about that conduct displaying up similtaneously stream strain, after which worth lastly doing the factor it does when leverage and narrative crack collectively.
Proper now, two of these levers are already pulled.
What would make me say the bear is resolving early
I’m preserving my flip-level framework, and I’m preserving it boring on goal.
- Charges have to cease residing within the mud, the YCharts charge line must rebuild an actual flooring relative to the YCharts income line.
- ETF stream conduct wants to alter, the Farside desk wants to point out constant dip shopping for once more, not late-month air pockets.
- Mempool situations have to really feel alive once more, charge strain displaying up within the mempool medians in a manner that means actual settlement demand.
If these occur whereas worth stays elevated, the “shortest winter but” framing begins to win.
If these keep weak and worth finally breaks, the $49k model print stays in play as a liquidity magnet, as a result of that’s the place the client base tends to alter character.
The place I stand at this time
I should not have the cathartic conclusion that each market story needs, as a result of the market has not given it but.
The infrastructure tells me winter situations are already right here.
The chart tells me the group has not felt them.
That hole is the factor to observe, as a result of gaps like this don’t normally persist eternally.
And once they shut, they shut quick.
