For greater than a decade, October has been certainly one of Bitcoin’s best months to be bullish.
Traditionally, it has delivered common features of about 22.5%, helped by post-summer liquidity, year-end portfolio positioning, and, extra lately, regular demand from US funding merchandise.
Because of this, confidence in that sample was excessive once more this yr. And true to kind, Bitcoin set a brand new file above $126,000 within the first week of the month as merchants shortly revived the acquainted “Uptober” slogan.
Nonetheless, a flash sell-off erased these early features inside days, and in contrast to tech shares and different threat belongings, Bitcoin by no means recovered its worth.
This resulted within the month closing decrease, the meme failing, and the market was reminded that slogans don’t take up provide.
Echoes of 2018
What makes this October notable is how intently it rhymes with 2018.
Again then, October didn’t collapse because it merely stopped rallying. As soon as that common seasonal tailwind pale, November and December turned sharply decrease, with Bitcoin dropping greater than 36% in November alone.
The takeaway was easy: when a traditionally robust month fails to elevate costs, underlying weak point is already in play. That weak point can stem from extra provide, fading demand, and even tighter macroeconomic circumstances.
This yr carries the same undertone. The calendar didn’t cease working. As a substitute, the market got here into October exhausted.
After a robust first three quarters, merchants have been closely positioned, liquidity was uneven, and long-term holders started taking income into each signal of energy.
Why did Bitcoin worth fall in October?
On-chain knowledge explains most of why the Bitcoin worth struggled in October.
Knowledge from the blockchain analytics platform Glassnode confirmed that long-term BTC holders have been steadily spending cash since mid-July, growing realized promoting from roughly $1 billion a day to between $2 billion and $3 billion a day by early October.
It famous:
“Filtering by age cohort reveals that 6m–12m holders drove over 50% of current promote stress—particularly through the late phases of the highest formation. Across the $126,000 ATH, their spending exceeded $648M/day (7D-SMA); over 5x their baseline earlier in 2025.”
Crucially, this distribution was not a panic spike like prior capitulation occasions. It was gradual, persistent, promoting into each present of energy.
In accordance with the agency, most of the cash originated from wallets that had been bought for between $70,000 and $96,000, leading to a mean value of practically $93,000.
This implies that the transfer appears to be like extra like profit-taking after a robust yr moderately than a concern of a downturn.
On the identical time, Bitcoin’s poor efficiency was compounded by the truth that its purchase facet considerably thinned out in October.
In its weekly report, crypto analytical platform CryptoQuant famous a noticeable slowdown in US investor urge for food throughout spot markets, ETFs, and futures following the late-September rally.
Certainly, ETF inflows cooled considerably to lower than 1,000 BTC/day, which was significantly decrease than the common of over 2,500 BTC/day seen firstly of main rallies this cycle.
Moreover, spot trade premiums narrowed, and the futures foundation retreated.
Moreno famous that these have been alerts that the marginal US purchaser stepped again proper when long-term holders stepped up their promoting.
In the meantime, the macro backdrop additionally amplified the drag.
This yr has been dominated by commerce frictions—particularly between the US and China—and flare-ups within the Center East. The Federal Reserve has additionally continued to sign a restrictive coverage stance, sustaining tight international greenback liquidity.
Contemplating all of this, analysis platform Kronos framed the October pullback as a “liquidity pressure, not a pattern break,” noting that Bitcoin nonetheless behaved as a relative flight-to-safety asset whilst leveraged longs have been flushed out.
What’s subsequent for BTC?
The uncomfortable parallel for bulls is that the final crimson October preceded a troublesome year-end.
In 2018, the lack of seasonal help was adopted by thinner liquidity, extra decisive long-term holder distribution, and consumers ready a number of legs decrease.
Nonetheless, at the moment’s market is more healthy as a result of the investor base is deeper, stablecoin liquidity is bigger, and controlled merchandise now present a slower, steadier bid that merely didn’t exist seven years in the past.
Contemplating this, Timothy Misir, head of analysis at BRN, described the present setup as a market that’s “recalibrating, not collapsing,” including that institutional accumulation continues beneath the floor so long as Bitcoin holds above the $107,000–$110,000 zone.
Even so, the October print modifications the dialog. When Bitcoin can’t rally within the month it normally rallies, the burden of proof shifts to the bulls.
The ultimate two months of the yr are prone to be outlined much less by memes about Uptober and extra by whether or not long-term holder spending cools again towards $1 billion a day and whether or not US ETF flows reaccelerate.
If provide stays heavy and the regulated bid stays gentle, 2025 may echo 2018 with a uneven, irritating end to the yr. Nonetheless, if flows return and geopolitics calm, October could find yourself trying much less like the beginning of a slide and extra like a quick, orderly handoff from older holders to new ones.
