Julio Moreno, head of analysis at CryptoQuant, just lately declared that Bitcoin is in a bear market that might prolong via the third quarter of 2026.
He is not alone. Matt Hougan at Bitwise and a rising refrain of institutional voices are utilizing the “bear” label extra freely than at any level since early 2023.
But the identical analysts typically hedge with construction: many establishments are holding or including publicity at the same time as they acknowledge the regime shift.
This creates a definitional drawback. If a bear market now not means capitulation and exodus, what does it imply?
And if the well-known four-year cycle is useless, as VanEck, K33 Analysis, and 21Shares have every argued in current experiences, how lengthy does a bear market final when the outdated calendar now not applies?
What configures a bear market
The standard finance definition for a bear market affords a place to begin.
The US Securities and Alternate Fee defines a bear market as a broad index falling 20% or extra over at the very least two months. Bitcoin cleared that threshold months in the past.
From its early October 2025 peak above $126,000, BTC has declined by roughly 41% to roughly $74,000 as of Feb. 3. By the headline commonplace, the case is closed.
Nonetheless, Coinbase Institutional analysis explicitly calls the 20% threshold “considerably arbitrary” and fewer relevant to crypto, the place 20% swings can occur and not using a true regime change.
In apply, analysts depend on a three-part dashboard: worth development, positioning and derivatives, and demand and liquidity.
Value development is essentially the most seen. CryptoQuant leans closely on the 365-day shifting common as a boundary marker.
Bitcoin at present trades under that stage, which sits round $101,448. CryptoQuant’s Bull Rating Index, a composite measure of on-chain well being, registered 20 out of 100, described as excessive bear territory.
Coinbase has used the 200-day shifting common in previous cycle analyses to qualify bear regimes, and Bitcoin stays under that threshold as effectively.
Positioning and derivatives supply a second sign. Glassnode’s current Week On-Chain experiences doc rotation towards draw back safety, bearish skew in choices markets, and situations that improve draw back sensitivity, together with seller gamma under zero.
When merchants pay premiums to hedge in opposition to additional declines relatively than to seize upside, the market is behaving defensively.
Demand and liquidity present the structural context. CoinShares estimates that giant holders have offered roughly $29 billion in Bitcoin since October. Digital asset exchange-traded merchandise noticed roughly $440 million in year-to-date outflows.
CryptoQuant and MarketWatch characterize the present regime as weak demand mixed with contracting stablecoin liquidity, traditional components of a bear market.
The newest Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode international investor survey, performed from Dec. 10, 2025, to Jan. 12, 2026, discovered that 26% of establishments now describe the market as being within the bear part. The outcomes are up from simply 2% within the prior survey.
But the identical survey revealed that 62% of establishments held or elevated internet lengthy publicity since October, and 70% view Bitcoin as undervalued.
This disconnect is the defining characteristic of the 2026 bear market. It isn’t about capitulation—it is about regime recognition whereas sustaining structural publicity.
The label “bear market” is turning into much less about who’s fleeing and extra about who continues to be shopping for, at the same time as sentiment stays horrible.
When does this bear market finish?
Defining the top of a bear market requires readability about what “finish” means.
Essentially the most rigorous strategy treats it as a regime shift relatively than a sense. Analysts establish three sensible triggers: development reclamation, demand inflection, and threat urge for food normalization.
Pattern reclaim happens when Bitcoin regains and holds above long-term shifting averages, such because the 200-day or 365-day, for a number of weeks.
Demand inflection means exchange-traded fund and exchange-traded product flows shift from subdued or destructive to sustained inflows, and large-holder distribution slows.
Threat urge for food normalization means choices skew returns to balanced ranges, with much less demand for draw back safety and leverage constructing sustainably.
The forward-looking eventualities cluster into three time horizons, every supported by particular analyst commentary.
The primary state of affairs is a traditional crypto winter that extends via mid or late 2026.
Julio Moreno has recognized $70,000 over three to 6 months and $56,000 within the second half of 2026 as a deeper potential path. This state of affairs assumes demand stays weak, flows stay destructive, and Bitcoin fails repeated makes an attempt to reclaim its shifting averages. Bear-market rallies occur however fail to carry.
The second state of affairs is a shorter, shallower bear market lasting three to 6 months, characterised by uneven, range-bound worth motion, adopted by enhancing situations within the second half of 2026.
CoinShares explicitly expects a uneven three-to-six-month interval, with medium-term constructive situations as whale promoting exhausts by mid-2026.
On this framing, the bear market is extra about time than depth: a regime through which upside is capped till demand reverses, however the flooring holds.
The third state of affairs treats the bear market as a liquidity-wave occasion relatively than a calendar-based cycle.
The bear ends when demand and liquidity re-accelerate, no matter what the halving clock says. This maps immediately onto CryptoQuant’s demand-led framing and avoids determinism stemming from halving. It acknowledges that the outdated playbook might now not apply.
| Situation | Horizon | What it appears like | Major triggers to observe | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basic winter (Moreno path) | Mid/late 2026 | Failed rallies; deeper retests | Sustained failure to reclaim 200D/365D; weak flows; persistent draw back hedging | Reclaim + maintain above MAs and flows flip sustainably constructive |
| Quick, shallow bear (CoinShares path) | 3–6 months | Vary-bound chop; capped upside | Stabilizing ETP flows; whale promoting slows/exhausts | Breakdown under key help zones with rising liquidation strain |
| Liquidity-wave regime (publish 4-year cycle) | Variable | Ends when liquidity/demand turns, not a calendar | International liquidity proxies, actual yields, stablecoin liquidity, hedging demand | Liquidity improves however BTC nonetheless can’t reclaim lengthy MAs (suggests structural weak point) |
Is that this bear market smaller than previous cycles?
The present drawdown of roughly 40% is already small in comparison with the stereotypical over 70% crypto winters of prior cycles.
Nonetheless, a number of analysts’ draw back eventualities cluster round $55,000 to $60,000, implying a complete drawdown nearer to the mid-50% vary if realized.
That will nonetheless be smaller than historic extremes however significant sufficient to qualify as a bear market by any commonplace.
The market can be more and more bifurcated. Bitcoin holds structural management, whereas a lot of the remainder of the crypto market performs far worse.
The Coinbase and Glassnode report emphasize this through dominance metrics and defensive positioning habits. The 2026 market is Okay-shaped, and the “bear market” might have an effect on asset lessons erratically.
The four-year cycle is over, however what replaces it?
VanEck argued in 2025 that the four-year cycle had damaged and that the outdated playbook was much less dependable.
K33 Analysis printed a report titled “4-year cycle is useless, lengthy stay the king,” which lays out why the regime modified.
21Shares describes the cycle as evolving, probably extending to 5 years, as liquidity waves lengthen and institutional participation deepens.
What replaces the four-year clock is a liquidity-and-flows clock. This contains actual yields, international liquidity impulses, flows of exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded merchandise, stablecoin liquidity, and hedging demand.
CoinShares explicitly frames Bitcoin’s current dislocation when it comes to relationships with valuable metals and macro liquidity. Coinbase and Glassnode emphasize a defensive derivatives posture as a real-time regime indicator.
The implication for bear market length is that bear markets might develop into extra frequent however much less extreme. As an alternative of existential winters, the market might expertise extra frequent regime drawdowns if institutional flows present a flooring.
Rallies can nonetheless fail till demand and liquidity flip, however the underlying construction might stop the form of multi-year capitulation that has outlined previous cycles.
This creates a paradox. The bear market might last more in calendar time however inflict much less harm in share phrases. Or it could finish sooner if demand inflects earlier than the outdated cycle logic would predict.
Both approach, the clock that ruled Bitcoin for a decade now not governs it.
The guidelines issues greater than the calendar
In 2026, calling a bear market is not one metric, however a guidelines.
Pattern breaks, hedging demand, and a demand-liquidity rollover all level in the identical course. Bitcoin is in a bear regime by most frameworks that matter.
When it ends relies upon much less on the halving calendar and extra on the timing of the demand cycle. CoinShares expects three to 6 months of chop. CryptoQuant sees potential for deeper lows within the second half of the yr.
Each may very well be proper at totally different moments if the regime oscillates relatively than resolves cleanly.
The four-year cycle is useless, however the query of when this bear ends isn’t unanswerable. It ends when Bitcoin reclaims its long-term shifting averages, when institutional flows flip constructive, and when choices markets cease pricing for cover.
Till then, the market is in a regime the place upside is capped, and endurance is required. Even when establishments preserve shopping for whereas calling it a bear.
