Crypto analyst Cristian Chifoi says the Bitcoin value motion is repeating 2022 cycle patterns, however solely in reverse. Again then, the US Federal Reserve (FED) fee hikes triggered a staggering 63% crash within the BTC value. Now with the FED making ready to finish Quantitative Tightening (QT), Chifoi believes the identical macro setup might push costs in the wrong way, doubtlessly marking the beginning of Bitcoin’s subsequent main rally.
Bitcoin Value Traces 2022 Cycle Sample In Reverse
Chifoi defined on X social media on November 2 that Bitcoin’s behaviour seems to be replaying the 2022 macroeconomic surroundings in reverse. Again in March 2022, he famous that when the FED first introduced aggressive fee hikes, the Bitcoin value was trending close to $46,000. Because the US central financial institution delivered its preliminary two hikes of fifty and 75 foundation factors by June that yr, BTC collapsed to $17,000, marking the technical backside of that cycle.
Because the FED continued to hike from a complete of 175 to 550 bps, the market had already absorbed the shock. Chifoi revealed that Bitcoin had entered its accumulation part and commenced to reverse upward whilst different market consultants labeled the central financial institution’s actions “irresponsible” and belated.
Quick ahead to the current, Chifoi believes that the cycle is now flipping. With the FED lately asserting the tip of Quantitative Tightening by December, he predicts that the subsequent three-month window might set off a strong bullish surge that might drive Bitcoin to a high moderately than a backside.
He factors to late December via January 20, 2026, as the important thing interval to observe, suggesting that the crypto market might rally sharply earlier than coming into a cooling part as liquidity totally returns.
Liquidity Spikes And Repo Indicators Help Thesis
Supporting his evaluation, Chifoi referenced a put up made by one other analyst often called ‘ChurchOfTheCycle,’ who shared a telling FRED chart exhibiting a surge in In a single day Repurchase Agreements—Treasury securities briefly bought by the FED in open market operations.
The chart, which spans from 2000 to 2025, highlights a sudden and substantial spike in repo exercise, suggesting potential liquidity injections into the monetary system. The analyst famous that this spike alone doesn’t assure a market crash, as traditionally such will increase have sometimes offered a short-term increase for equities and crypto.
He additional famous that the FED’s latest actions point out stress within the monetary system and an early stage of liquidity help, which might push speculative belongings larger.
Based mostly on this, the analyst predicts that the market might nonetheless enter a parabolic part from This autumn 2025 to Q1 2026 earlier than dealing with a significant crash in 2026, roughly 6-12 months from the time of his put up on November 2. As a precaution, he warns merchants to watch credit score spreads, repo exercise ranges, and VIX correlation for early indicators of tightening liquidity.
Featured picture created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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