Public Bitcoin miners collectively held 115,335 $BTC as of Feb. 20, price roughly $7.4 billion on the latest value, however that treasury dropped 4.44% month-over-month, the primary sustained contraction since miners started stockpiling cash as balance-sheet property.
The decline wasn’t an accident. Riot Platforms bought 1,818 $BTC in December 2025 for $161.6 million in internet proceeds. Bitdeer liquidated its total treasury, promoting 189.8 $BTC it mined plus dumping 943.1 $BTC from reserves to fund a pivot into AI infrastructure backed by $300 million in convertible notes.
The sample suggests miner treasuries are shifting from strategic reserves to working capital, and the timing issues.
The market-implied hash value for the following six months sits round $28.73 per petahash per day, a degree that makes older mining fleets uneconomic and forces operators to decide on between promoting Bitcoin, diluting fairness, or elevating costly debt.
The setup compresses miner margins from a number of instructions. Bitcoin’s April 2024 halving reduce block subsidies to three.125 $BTC, decreasing every day issuance to roughly 450 $BTC. Transaction charges now contribute successfully zero to miner income, as CoinShares described charges as “decisively under 1%” of whole miner revenue.
Mining problem rose roughly 14.73% on Feb. 19 to round 144.40 terahash, whereas hashprice dropped again under $30 per petahash per day.
VanEck’s mid-February 2026 evaluation flagged the Antminer S19 XP as uneconomical above roughly $0.07 per kilowatt-hour below present situations.
Riot’s third-quarter 2025 metrics illustrated the squeeze: the corporate’s price to mine one Bitcoin was roughly $46,000 excluding depreciation, however $89,000 together with capital gear write-downs.
With Bitcoin buying and selling within the mid-$60,000 vary throughout components of early 2026, the hole between all-in price and spot value narrowed to the purpose the place treasury gross sales turned a rational type of liquidity administration.
Treasuries as days of recent issuance
At roughly 450 $BTC per day in new issuance, the 115,335 $BTC held by public miners represents roughly 256 days of recent provide.
A ten% liquidation would launch round 11,533 $BTC, equal to 26 days of miner issuance. A 25% drawdown would quantity to twenty-eight,834 $BTC, or 64 days of provide.
The seen stock pool issues as a result of it seems on audited steadiness sheets and is topic to quarterly disclosure necessities.
Not like decentralized mining operations, public miners report holdings and gross sales in SEC filings, making their treasuries essentially the most clear supply of marginal provide.
Treasury focus amplifies the dynamic. Marathon Digital holds 52,850 $BTC, Riot Platforms 18,005 $BTC, CleanSpark 13,513 $BTC, and Hut 8 Mining 10,278 $BTC.
These 4 names management the majority of disclosed reserves, that means promote stress is a operate of how these corporations fund operations when hashprice stays weak.
Bitdeer’s trajectory reveals the intense case: the corporate zeroed out its Bitcoin treasury whereas asserting $300 million in convertibles for information middle enlargement, AI cloud infrastructure, and mining {hardware}.
The pivot reframes Bitcoin holdings as capex gasoline, and if hash value stays close to present ranges, different miners could observe go well with.
The ahead market is pricing sustained stress
Luxor’s hashprice ahead market provides a quasi-forecast derived from market individuals hedging future profitability.
As of Feb. 16, the ahead curve priced the typical hash price at $28.73 per petahash per day over the following six months. That pricing suggests the market would not count on a fast rebound in profitability.
CoinShares floated the likelihood that international hashrate might attain 1.5 zettahash per second by mid-2026 if aggressive capability enlargement continues. A rising hashrate with out a proportional improve in Bitcoin’s value would compress the hashprice additional.
The problem adjustment mechanism creates timing threat. Issue will increase lag hashrate surges, that means miners can expertise short-term profitability enhancements when hashrate drops, solely to see problem alter upward and erase these features weeks later.
A Feb. 22 evaluation framed latest problem swings as a “problem up, hashprice down, charges skinny” setting that arrived exactly when miners wanted reduction. The mismatch between when income improves and when problem recalibrates creates money move volatility that pushes operators towards preemptive treasury gross sales.
Selective liquidation vs full exit
Riot’s December 2025 gross sales provide one playbook.
The corporate bought 1,818 $BTC for $161.6 million, decreasing holdings to 18,005 $BTC whereas retaining nearly all of its treasury. The strategy indicators confidence that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory justifies holding most reserves, even when short-term liquidity wants require partial monetization.
Riot’s price construction, with mining prices round $46,000 per $BTC excluding depreciation, suggests the corporate can generate optimistic money move if Bitcoin stays above that threshold.
Bitdeer represents the alternative excessive. The corporate liquidated its total Bitcoin treasury, changing reserves into capital for AI and information middle enlargement. The transfer reframes mining as one income line inside a diversified infrastructure enterprise.
Bitdeer’s $300 million convertible notes financing reveals the corporate betting it may possibly generate higher returns by deploying capital into AI cloud companies than holding Bitcoin.
If different miners conclude that AI infrastructure or energy monetization provides greater risk-adjusted returns, comparable treasury drawdowns might observe.
The $BTC runway calculation
The actual query is not whether or not miners will promote, however which miners should promote and the way a lot.
A simplified liquidity evaluation ranks miners by their “$BTC runway,” which is the variety of months they will cowl working prices, curiosity, and capital commitments utilizing money, undrawn credit score amenities, and convertible debt issuance, earlier than needing to liquidate Bitcoin.
Miners with sturdy liquidity cushions can wait out low hash price environments, whereas operators with skinny money buffers face stress to monetize their treasuries.
Offsets complicate the image. Internet hosting income from third-party miners, HPC contracts, energy curtailment funds, and gear gross sales can generate money move unbiased of Bitcoin mining.
Hedging methods utilizing futures or choices can lock in ahead costs. Miners with diversified income streams face completely different funding pressures than pure-play Bitcoin miners, who rely solely on block rewards and treasury appreciation.
Promote stress will not arrive uniformly, it’s going to focus amongst operators with the shortest runways and the fewest different funding sources.
The market is already signaling stress
Glassnode’s Puell A number of, a metric that compares every day miner income to its 365-day transferring common, stood at 0.673 as of Feb. 23.
Readings under 1.0 point out that miner income sits under its one-year common, a situation that traditionally precedes both business consolidation or pressured asset gross sales.
VanEck’s evaluation of the S19 XP threshold being uneconomical above roughly $0.07 per kilowatt-hour issues as a result of electrical energy prices throughout the business aren’t uniform.
Miners working in jurisdictions with low-cost hydro or stranded fuel take pleasure in margins that persist even because the hash value weakens. Operators in higher-cost areas face binary outcomes: relocate, improve to extra environment friendly {hardware}, or shut down.
Treasuries turn out to be funding variables
The shift from HODL narrative to working capital device reframes how the market ought to interpret miner steadiness sheets.
Public miners constructed treasuries during times when the hash price supported worthwhile operations, and Bitcoin’s value appreciated quicker than returns from different investments. That setting is reversed.
Hash value ahead curves sign sustained weak spot, transaction charges contribute negligibly, and gear obsolescence accelerates as problem rises.
The seen stock pool of 115,335 $BTC throughout public miners represents 256 days of recent provide at present issuance charges, making even modest liquidation percentages significant within the every day market context.
Riot and Bitdeer demonstrated the vary of responses: selective treasury gross sales to protect optionality versus full liquidation to fund diversification.
The variations lie in capital entry, income diversification, and administration’s view of Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns. So long as ahead hashprice expectations stay close to $28.73 per petahash per day and older fleets flip uneconomic above $0.07 per kilowatt-hour, miner treasuries will operate as a funding variable, not a HODL sign.
The market’s job is monitoring which miners promote, how a lot, and whether or not the gross sales characterize tactical liquidity administration or systematic de-risking.
