Trump could be making his final efforts to keep away from escalation, says the analyst.
Tokic predicts a breakout in monetary markets if US rates of interest rise
The governments of america and Iran are holding negotiations to comprise the battle battle that has continued since February 28, 2026.
The stress between each nations worsened between final weekend and yesterday, Tuesday, Might 19. Within the first occasion, US President Donald Trump warned Tehran that Time to succeed in a negotiated exit is working out. Subsequently, the president introduced the cancellation of a navy assault scheduled towards Iranian territory for a similar day yesterday.
Towards this backdrop, researcher and monetary advisor Damir Tokic supplied an alarming perspective on the geopolitical future. «This could possibly be essentially the most troublesome geopolitical state of affairs in historical past. There isn’t a resolution, no foundation to succeed in an settlement, however the escalation could possibly be catastrophic,” the specialist warned relating to the stagnation of the peace talks.
The core of the disaster lies within the strategic and navy sphere of the area. “Iran appears decided to keep up its nuclear program, but when the time wanted to develop nuclear weapons is de facto measured in weeks, this can’t be allowed,” Tokic stated. The analyst immediately linked this technological advance with the direct place adopted by the White Home.
«For my part, the time it could take for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon might be measured in weeks; “There isn’t a different cause why President Trump could be so concerned within the Center East battle,” the specialist argued. The chance that the Asian nation completes its weapons raises alarms within the worldwide neighborhood.
It’s price clarifying that Tokic follows, in his arguments, the official narrative of america and its allies, which justifies the assaults to cease an alleged nuclear program in progress. From Iran they deny that these are the actual causes. The Iranian ambassador to Spain, Reza Zabib, stated in an interview: “In the event that they solely give attention to the economic system, oil theft, tourism or fame for the elections, what we may have is battle.”
Each side refuse to present floor
The diplomatic paralysis responds to the conflicting objectives of these concerned within the battle. “We’re at a stalemate, and it is rather unlikely that an settlement shall be reached, except one of many events is considerably weakened,” stated the researcher. This situation reduces the margin to agree on an efficient truce within the brief time period..
On the one hand, the US technique focuses on immediately carrying down enemy infrastructure. «The USA can weaken Iran’s place by means of new navy actions; that’s the escalation possibility. The USA has additionally tried to weaken Iran by means of naval blockade, however this requires time and persistence, which it lacks,” Tokic defined.
However, Tehran responds by means of financial stress on Western international locations. “Iran can solely weaken america by imposing excessive financial prices on it by means of a sudden enhance within the value of oil and an inflationary disaster, closing the Strait of Hormuz,” the skilled identified concerning the dynamics of mutual retaliation.
The hostilities led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key delivery channel by means of which 20% of the world’s oil transits. This logistical interruption raised the worth of Brent crude oil—reference for 70% of the worldwide market—above $100 per barrel, a document worth that has not been recorded since 2022.
Moreover, The battle threatens to increase to different delivery routes important for worldwide commerce.. If the confrontation intensifies, Iran may attempt to take management of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a route that connects the Crimson Sea with the Gulf of Aden and which channels a tenth of world merchandise commerce.
This maritime maneuver responds to an outlined strategic planning to disperse Western navy assets. The intention of controlling that second step is “to make america focus its consideration on two maritime fronts as an alternative of 1,” stated Mehdi Kharatian, an Iranian analyst and director of the Institute for Political Revival.
Results of battle on the economic system and the market
The macroeconomic results of this power blockade already influence monetary indicators worldwide. In america, the producer value index (PPI) rose to six% year-on-year in April 2026, after 4.3% in March. Likewise, the patron value index (CPI), which measures retail inflation amongst residents, rose to three.8%. Each knowledge are the best since 2023.
As a direct consequence of energy-driven inflation, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond rose. Yesterday, Might 19, stated rate of interest reached 5.19%, its highest degree since July 2007, as reported by CriptoNoticias. This motion displays the demand for increased returns by traders within the face of inflationary threat.
This example places stress on the actions of the Federal Reserve (FED), the central financial institution of america. “The impact of the battle between america and Iran is also catastrophic for monetary markets, primarily by means of the sudden enhance in rates of interest,” Tokic projected as a result of normal acceleration within the costs of services.
According to this, funding analyst Ed Yardeni commented that the FED will maintain its financial coverage unchanged on the June assembly. Nevertheless, the specialist warned that sees possible a rise in rates of interest of 1 / 4 of a proportion level in the course of the name subsequent July 2026.
For the bitcoin market, the evolution of this battle battle is of nice significance. An surroundings of excessive rates of interest negatively impacts its value, as a result of state bonds provide enticing and protected returns, decreasing the inducement for belongings thought of “dangerous” and inflicting the migration of capital in the direction of fastened revenue.
Bitcoin skilled a 4% drop within the final seven days, falling from $81,000 to $76,900 at this time. This value is the bottom recorded by the crypto asset since final Might 1, being 38% under its historic most of $126,000 reached on October 6, 2025.
Within the brief and medium time period, the way forward for the worldwide monetary market and the worth of bitcoin will largely rely on the decision of this geopolitical stalemate. “Subsequently, based mostly on these observations, even the final try and keep away from escalation is prone to fail, as each side nonetheless really feel they’ve the power to acquire a greater settlement by means of escalation,” Tokic detailed.
Newest peace try has little probability of success, in line with Tokic
The analyst warned that the approaching part of the battle may exceed the fabric injury beforehand noticed. «It is vitally unsure how the second spherical of the battle between america and Iran would develop.
«The primary spherical was comparatively contained, targeted primarily on navy targets, with some injury to regional power infrastructure. The following wave could possibly be catastrophic,” he stated.
The result of this disaster may power the worldwide neighborhood to select between assuming the financial prices of battle or accepting a brand new steadiness of energy. “If america merely withdraws, Iran will get a nuclear weapon. The query now’s whether or not the worldwide neighborhood, led by america, is prepared to permit Iran to change into a nuclear energy,” the skilled concluded.
