Prediction markets reached a brand new month-to-month quantity file of $28.4 billion in Could in keeping with knowledge from Artemis. This quantity tops the earlier excessive of $27.1 billion set in January this 12 months and marks 4 consecutive months with greater volumes.
The streak itself says greater than the headline quantity does. January’s spike fed off election-cycle leftovers and new 12 months positioning. Could, then again, didn’t actually have any equal catalyst and nonetheless beat it. This appears to recommend that exercise on prediction market platforms are shifting from sudden spikes based mostly on occasions towards a gradual flooring. The concept of those markets being a venue for infrequent curiosity is progressively transferring to an always-on area.
Kalshi recorded $17.3 billion in quantity final month. This can be a month-to-month file in itself for the platform and a 29% enhance in quantity over the earlier month. What’s extra noteworthy is the truth that about 61% of all quantity got here from Kalshi and it processed practically twice the quantity of Polymarket, which noticed $8.4 billion. Taken collectively, nevertheless, the duopoly continues to be there as each these platforms made up near 90% of the buying and selling quantity in Could.
If we return to a 12 months in the past, this cut up between the 2 largest platforms would have learn backwards. Polymarket constructed the class and held market dominance all the best way from 2024 up till September 2025, when Kalshi tipped the scales. We tracked the identical reversal inside crypto-themed contracts earlier this month, the place Kalshi’s share went vertical from February on.
The explanation for this flip is definitely fairly understandable. Kalshi’s regulated US standing has helped drive its sports activities enterprise, which carries most of its quantity. Conversely, Polymarket was mired in a bunch of regulatory obstacles via massive components of the final quarter. This isn’t to say that Polymarket’s volumes have fallen off a cliff month on month however that it simply stopped climbing.
Why 4 Straight Months Beats One Report
A single file could be a fluke. A sports activities calendar, a viral market, one large election can all spike a month after which fade. 4 months in a row is more durable to wave off. It means the ground below the sector retains rising even when the catalyst rotates out.
That baseline is the maturation sign. Prediction markets are not ready for an election to matter. Newsrooms cite the chances, hedge funds watch them, and market makers like Wintermute now quote two-sided costs throughout the most important venues. The plumbing is beginning to appear to be an actual derivatives market relatively than a betting novelty.
Regulation and Builders Are the Subsequent Leg Up
Kalshi’s lead strains up with the regulatory wind. The CFTC has signaled clearer prediction-market steering is coming, which favors the licensed change. Polymarket is enjoying the identical sport from the opposite finish, having purchased a CFTC-licensed venue to re-enter the US promote it was largely locked out of.
The builder layer is the wild card. Hyperliquid switched on its HIP-4 final result contracts on mainnet on Could 2, letting builders deploy their very own markets on prime of an change that already clears a whole lot of billions in month-to-month quantity. The early take is tiny, round $87.7 million, nicely below 1% of the sector. Nevertheless it hints on the subsequent part: markets anybody can launch, settled on-chain, using a base of 1.4 million current merchants.
For now the form is easy. Two large venues, one in all them regulated and pulling away, sitting on a sector that simply posted its strongest month with nothing forcing it greater.
