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What Goes Into the Index
KPOW Midterms combines 13 election occasions. Home management carries a 20% weight and Senate management 25%. 5 governor races—Ohio, Nevada, Florida, Texas and Georgia—and 6 Senate races—Texas, Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Kansas and Iowa—every carry 5%.
The size runs from −50 for certainty of Democratic victories throughout all weighted races to +50 for Republican victories. Every occasion’s rating is 50 occasions the distinction between its Republican and Democratic contract costs; the index provides these scores in accordance with their weights. A +10 studying means roughly a 60% weighted common implied Republican win chance, not a 60% probability in each race.
Pyth calculates the index utilizing Kalshi’s public trades and Kalshi’s code, publishing a brand new worth each 30 seconds. It’s narrower than the broader American Energy Index, which additionally incorporates present officeholding, the presidency and government-shutdown danger.
What Determines a Payout
Contracts examine the settlement studying with their specified threshold or vary. A successful contract pays $1 and the dropping facet receives nothing, in accordance with Kalshi’s product submitting.
The default studying is a time-weighted common over the quarter-hour ending on the contract’s specified reference time—not the final index replace. Sure contracts listed on a 15-minute foundation for Nov. 3 can as an alternative use a 60-second window, however provided that that window was specified when listed.
For instance, an lively contract in Kalshi’s public API resolves Sure if the 15-minute common ending at midday ET on Nov. 4 is a minimum of +5.0.
The calculation additionally filters abrupt value modifications. A commerce greater than 5 cents from a market’s final accepted value is held till the worth comes again, the opposite-party market confirms the transfer inside 60 seconds, or each markets hold buying and selling on the new ranges for 5 minutes. A held transfer doesn’t enter the index earlier than acceptance.
The reference time doesn’t assure speedy fee. The foundations permit expiration as much as per week after the coated interval, with settlement no later than the next day until the result is below assessment.
If an underlying election market stops buying and selling, its final accepted value stays within the index—even after the race has been determined.
