Ethereum was cheaper than anticipated in 2020, and rollup decentralization was slower than promised in 2021. These two realities are pressured the ecosystem to rewrite what “a layer-2” is for.
Vitalik Buterin’s latest publish on Ethereum Analysis bluntly frames the shift: the unique imaginative and prescient of layer-2 (L2) blockchains as “branded shards” of Ethereum is now not viable, and the ecosystem requires a brand new path.
Nonetheless, this is not abandonment. As a substitute, it’s a re-tiering of expectations and a sharper definition of what various kinds of rollups are literally constructing.
The query now could be the brand new job description, because the premise underlying the rollup-centric roadmap has weakened.
Stage 2 is scarce
L2BEAT offers the clearest framework for understanding rollup decentralization by means of its Levels system.
Stage 0 denotes that coaching wheels stay in place, with significant belief assumptions persisting.
Stage 1 represents partial decentralization with stronger escape hatches and proof ensures, however nonetheless significant improve or governance belief.
Stage 2 is the “no coaching wheels” milestone, during which crucial security properties are enforced by code somewhat than by discretionary actors.
The present distribution of worth secured throughout the L2 ecosystem signifies this. In response to L2BEAT’s rollup scaling abstract, roughly 91.5% of the listed worth sits in Stage 1 rollups, 8.5% in Stage 0, and roughly 0.01% in Stage 2.
The highest three rollups by worth account for roughly 71% of the entire, indicating that “Stage 2 progress” largely is dependent upon the selections of the most important few initiatives, somewhat than on what smaller experimental chains try.
The core blocker is whether or not the proof techniques may be overridden and whether or not upgrades face robust delays and constraints.
Improve discretion stays widespread among the many largest rollups, and shifting past it has confirmed slower and harder than anticipated by the 2020-2021 optimism.
Some initiatives have explicitly acknowledged that they might not want to proceed past Stage 1, citing not solely technical constraints associated to zkEVM security but additionally regulatory necessities that require absolute management.
That is a reliable product determination for sure buyer bases, nevertheless it clarifies that these chains usually are not “scaling Ethereum” within the sense the rollup-centric roadmap initially meant.
| Mission | Stage | TVS ($) | Proof sort | Improve key / safety council current? | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbitrum One | 1 | 16.16B | Optimistic | Sure | Emergency path can skip delays |
| Base Chain | 1 | 10.99B | Optimistic | Sure | Upgrades permitted by a number of events; no delay |
| OP Mainnet | 1 | 1.88B | Optimistic | Sure | Safety council immediate improve energy |
| Lighter | 0 (Appchain) | 1.27B | Validity | Sure | 21d delay, emergency can go to 0 |
| Starknet | 1 | 676.17M | Validity | Sure | Safety council can improve with no delay |
| Ink | 1 | 523.71M | Optimistic | Sure | Safety council + basis approvals; no common delay |
| Linea | 0 | 492.93M | Validity | Sure | Multisig can improve with no delay |
| ZKsync Period | 0 | 417.07M | Validity | Sure | Emergency board can bypass improve delays |
| Katana | 0 | 297.94M | Validity | Sure | safety council can take away the improve delay |
| Unichain | 1 | 168.81M | Optimistic | Sure | no exit window for normal upgrades; immediate powers |
Why the constraints modified
The Oct. 2, 2020, publish “A rollup-centric Ethereum roadmap” on the Fellowship of Ethereum Magicians laid out the unique thesis.
Fuel costs have been climbing, some functions have been being pressured to close down, and the conclusion was that the ecosystem can be “all-in on rollups” for the close to and medium time period.
Base-layer scaling ought to prioritize information capability for rollups, and customers would more and more stay on L2.
Two laborious information have shifted since then. First, L1 is considerably cheaper at current. Etherscan reveals a seven-day common transaction price of round $0.35 and gasoline snapshots within the fractions of a gwei.
On Jan. 16, Ethereum recorded an all-time excessive of two,885,524 transactions in a single day. The narrative is “busier and cheaper,” precisely the other of the 2020 disaster that motivated the rollup-centric roadmap.
Second, L1 execution capability is rising. Ethereum’s block gasoline restrict was raised to roughly 60 million after broad validator signaling in late 2025, up from the long-standing 30 million restrict.
At roughly 12-second blocks, 60 million gasoline interprets to roughly 5 million gasoline per second.
Aspirational neighborhood discussions have talked about targets as excessive as 180 million gasoline, which might signify a threefold improve, although that continues to be directional somewhat than dedicated.
The clear interpretation: the 2020 premise that “L1 cannot scale for many customers” is weaker in as we speak’s price regime. This creates room for L2s to be a spectrum of safety and sovereignty trade-offs somewhat than all being near-identical “shards” competing solely on worth.
L2s as a spectrum, not clones
Buterin’s proposed reframing treats L2s as occupying a full spectrum.
On one finish are chains backed by the complete religion and credit score of Ethereum, with distinctive properties, not simply EVM clones but additionally privacy-focused techniques, non-EVM execution environments, or ultra-low-latency sequencers.
On the different finish are choices with various ranges of Ethereum connectivity that customers and functions can select primarily based on their particular wants.
The brand new minimal bar is simple: should you deal with ETH or Ethereum-issued property, attain a minimum of Stage 1.
In any other case, you are a separate L1 with a bridge, and may name your self that. The differentiation bar is more durable: be the very best at one thing aside from “low cost EVM.”
Examples Buterin cites embody privateness, effectivity specialised to a specific utility, really excessive scaling past even an expanded L1, basically totally different designs for non-financial functions reminiscent of social or id techniques, ultra-low-latency sequencing, or options reminiscent of built-in oracles or decentralized dispute decision that are not computationally verifiable.
The mechanism which may facilitate that is nonetheless below investigation. A “native rollup precompile” would allow Ethereum to confirm an ordinary zkEVM proof inside the protocol.
For rollups which can be “EVM plus extras,” this implies the canonical EVM verification happens trustlessly on the protocol degree, and the rollup solely must show its customized extensions individually.
This might allow stronger interoperability and pave the way in which for synchronous composability, during which contracts throughout totally different rollups can work together inside the similar transaction. But, it stays a analysis trajectory, not a deployed function.
The Jan. 16 publish “Combining preconfirmations with primarily based rollups for synchronous composability” and the Feb. 2 publish “Synchronous composability between rollups by way of realtime proving” lay out the design house however do not signify shipped protocol modifications.
Three buckets rising
If this reframing takes maintain, count on rollups to separate into clearer classes.
The primary bucket is Stage 2-chasing settlement rollups that maximize Ethereum safety inheritance.
These initiatives purpose to attain code-enforced ensures with minimal discretionary governance, treating “scaling Ethereum” as their core mandate.
The second bucket is regulated or managed execution environments.
These optimize for compliance, permissioning, or particular institutional necessities. They might by no means progress past Stage 1 by design, and they need to market that management truthfully as a function somewhat than pretending to supply full decentralization.
The third bucket is specialised chains optimized for latency, privateness, app-specific execution, or non-financial use circumstances.
Privateness rollups utilizing zkProofs to cover transaction particulars, ultra-low-latency sequencers for buying and selling functions, or social and id techniques with basically totally different state fashions all fall inside this class.
These do not should be EVM-compatible and even monetary to justify their existence, they should present worth that their customers cannot get elsewhere.
Initiatives reminiscent of Arbitrum One, Optimism, Base, zkSync Period, and Starknet will every must determine which class they’re pursuing. The ecosystem is giant sufficient to assist all three, however the assumption that each L2 performs the identical perform is fading.
What modifications for customers and builders
For customers, the burden shifts to understanding ensures. Escape hatches, improve delays, proof techniques, and censorship resistance turn out to be product differentiators somewhat than assumed properties.
Wallets and interfaces might want to label belief assumptions extra explicitly, and the L2BEAT Levels framework goals to make these assumptions legible.
For builders, “low cost EVM” is commoditized. Differentiation strikes to privateness and customized digital machines, ultra-low-latency sequencing, app-specific throughput optimizations, non-financial functions in social, id, or AI contexts, or compliance and permissioning as an specific product, with out claiming it is “Ethereum scaling.”
For the broader market narrative, count on a louder debate about whether or not L2s “inherit Ethereum safety” in apply somewhat than as an aspiration.
The critique is already a speaking level amongst rival L1 proponents, and the ecosystem’s acknowledgment that many giant rollups stay at Stage 1 with discretionary governance provides that critique larger traction.
Is an L2 revolution about to begin?
Ethereum is unlikely to see an L2 revolution. As a substitute, it’ll witness a re-tiering.
The rollup-centric roadmap assumed that L2s can be near-identical “branded shards” competing totally on price, whereas L1 would stay costly and capacity-constrained.
That assumption now not holds. L1 is cheaper and increasing, whereas L2s are diverging sooner than they’re converging of their safety fashions and use circumstances, regardless of Stage 2 decentralization.
The brand new path acknowledges that actuality. L2s that custody ETH or Ethereum-issued property ought to meet a minimal safety bar, Stage 1 a minimum of. And past that, they need to compete on specialization and specific ensures somewhat than pretending to be interchangeable.
Native verification primitives and analysis on synchronous composability sign the place Ethereum goals to make that simpler, however these are trajectories, not deployed options.
The job description modified.
The minimal bar is to supply credible safety when dealing with Ethereum property. The differentiation bar is being the very best at one thing, and being trustworthy in regards to the belief mannequin.
The rollup-centric roadmap acquired upgraded to accommodate the truth that L1 is scaling and L2s are extra various than the unique imaginative and prescient anticipated.
