Bitcoin and Ethereum traded flat on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve launched its July assembly minutes. Markets anticipated volatility, however the crypto market confirmed little response.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left charges unchanged at 4.25%–4.5% in July. The minutes confirmed that Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented, preferring a 25 bps lower.
FOMC Minutes Fail to Transfer Crypto Markets
The Fed described inflation as “considerably elevated” and famous progress had “moderated” within the first half of 2025. Officers reaffirmed the two% inflation goal and pledged flexibility if dangers emerge.
JULY FOMC MINUTES: INFLATION RISKS SEEN OUTWEIGHING JOBS & OFFICIALS WARN ON ASSET VALUATIONS
Polymarket odds now favor 2 charge cuts in 2025 — with +140 because the most definitely situation this yr. pic.twitter.com/es1l2mPyjy
— Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) August 20, 2025
Markets had already priced in an 83% probability of a September charge lower. With no recent alerts within the minutes, crypto merchants noticed little cause to reprice threat. Consideration now shifts to Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at Jackson Gap.
Nevertheless, the silence in crypto markets displays an even bigger shift. Merchants are watching Donald Trump’s escalating tariff measures, which now dominate inflation expectations.
Latest tariffs on semiconductors, electronics, and metal have raised prices for international producers. Sony, for instance, raised PlayStation costs by $50 after tariffs on Japanese electronics. Brazil and India additionally face US commerce penalties, fueling international tensions.
Tariffs complicate the Fed’s path. They add inflationary stress, but in addition weigh on progress and exports. This leaves policymakers balancing two opposing forces—a lot tougher to deal with than an ordinary financial slowdown.
Whereas FOMC minutes are ready to mirror the assembly in query, they’re additionally undoubtedly used as a signalling software…inflation threat > employment threat is the important thing takeaway…it is a Fed the place, the bulk no less than, are in no hurry to chop…nor ought to they be…
— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) August 20, 2025
Larger Image – Macro Collision Course
The conflict between US financial coverage and Trump’s commerce agenda units up a collision course. The Fed faces a dilemma: lower charges to help slowing progress, or maintain them excessive as tariffs push up costs. Both possibility dangers lacking one aspect of its twin mandate.
For crypto markets, this uncertainty looms bigger than the Fed’s cautious July assertion. Traders see commerce coverage because the wild card that might drive inflation greater, stress international progress, and reshape safe-haven flows.
Till readability emerges, Bitcoin and Ethereum might stay range-bound, ready for the subsequent decisive macro sign.
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