Bitcoin plunges to $83K, fueling bear market fears as analyst Benjamin Cowen warns the cycle peak could also be over and draw back strain may final into 2026.
With key helps beneath menace, Bitcoin could retest $50K and even $30K if historic bear market patterns repeat, echoing downturns seen in previous cycles.
The Bitcoin value crashed to a brand new two-month low, close to $83,000, its weakest stage since November.
From its current rebound excessive close to $98,000, Bitcoin has now fallen by nearly $14,700, a decline of about 15% in simply over two weeks. The regular promoting strain suggests this transfer could also be greater than a short-term dip. Even because the US greenback weakens, Bitcoin has failed to draw consumers in search of security.
The decline has intensified issues that the broader crypto market has entered a bear market, with a number of technical and liquidity indicators now aligning to the draw back.
Has Bitcoin Entered a Bear Market?
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen believes the reply could also be sure. In accordance with Cowen, Bitcoin’s decline matches a well-known sample seen in earlier market cycles. He says Bitcoin typically begins falling at this stage, no matter information or sentiment.
Cowen argues that Bitcoin possible peaked in October 2025, and the market has been trending decrease since then.
Bitcoin’s Previous Cycles Present a Clear Sample
Traditionally, Bitcoin has typically reached its peak within the fourth quarter of main cycle years, a sample seen in 2013, 2017, 2021, and once more in 2025. In every of those cycles, the height was adopted by a chronic downturn.
In accordance with Cowen, the present market is following the identical timeline, regardless of widespread expectations that this cycle would play out in a different way.
Similarities to the 2019 Bitcoin Downtrend
Cowen additionally compares the present market to 2019, a interval when Bitcoin declined slowly with out widespread hype or panic. Throughout that part, altcoins did not carry out, costs moved decrease in a gentle method, and Bitcoin weakened earlier than broader cash situations started to enhance.
He believes the market as we speak is displaying related indicators, with Bitcoin persevering with to fall forward of any clear enchancment in total liquidity.
How Lengthy May This Bitcoin Bear Market Final?
In earlier cycles, Bitcoin downturns have usually lasted round one yr. The 2018 bear market stretched for roughly 12 months, and the 2022 downturn adopted an analogous timeline. If the present decline began in October 2025, Benjamin Cowen expects the weak spot to persist till late 2026.
He additionally highlights that previous drawdowns in Bitcoin-linked shares took shut to 2 years to succeed in a backside after peaking, suggesting the present cycle may observe a equally prolonged path.
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Bitcoin Value Prediction: The place May the Backside Be?
Based mostly on historic market cycles, Bitcoin is anticipated to kind a backside someday between mid-2026 and late 2026. If the present downtrend continues, the value may drop towards $50,000, a stage many see as a serious long-term assist zone.
In an prolonged bear market situation, the place promoting strain will increase and key assist ranges fail to carry, $BTC Value may slide additional towards $30,000, a spread that has marked deep bear market lows in earlier cycles.
A drop towards these ranges would match earlier bear markets, the place Bitcoin fell sharply earlier than discovering long-term assist.
$BTC Value Key Ranges to Watch
Bitcoin is at present buying and selling round $83,000, a stage many merchants see as necessary within the quick time period. The primary stage to look at is $80,000, which holds psychological significance and has attracted consumers previously. Beneath that, the $74,000–$75,000 vary stands out as an earlier assist zone the place Bitcoin beforehand discovered stability.
On the draw back, a deeper danger sits close to $71,000, which marks the midpoint of the final main rally. In earlier cycles, drops beneath this stage have typically led to quicker and sharper losses.
For now, Bitcoin stays inside a powerful assist zone between $80,000 and $84,000. This space has acted as a shopping for zone earlier than, and the market is testing it for the third time, rising the probabilities of a short-term bounce. Whereas many had anticipated Bitcoin to dip nearer to $80,000 earlier than stabilizing, present value motion suggests promoting strain is easing barely above that stage.
