Bitcoin value has traded under its two-year bull market channel for six weeks, with a 2021-style rounded prime and VanEck’s hashrate drop information framing a pivotal retest of resistance.
Abstract
- BTC broke under a long-running ascending channel and has since logged three failed reclaims, turning the channel’s decrease boundary into stiff resistance.
- Present value motion echoes 2021’s rounded prime: breakdown, sharp dump, corrective bounce and renewed promoting into the identical assist zone now being retested.
- VanEck flagged a 4% hashrate drop that has traditionally aligned with market bottoms, however analysts warn that affirmation nonetheless hinges on how BTC reacts at present resistance.
Bitcoin value is presently buying and selling under its long-term bull market channel for six consecutive weeks, elevating considerations concerning the cryptocurrency’s near-term trajectory as 2025 attracts to an in depth, in line with market analysts.
Bitcoin (BTC) broke under a development channel it had maintained for almost two years and has since confronted repeated rejections at key resistance ranges. In the course of the six-week interval under the channel, Bitcoin made three makes an attempt to re-enter the construction, all of which have been rejected, with resistance forming alongside the decrease boundary of the earlier development channel, in line with technical evaluation.
Bitcoin value stalls at key degree, what’s subsequent?
Bitcoin is presently consolidating slightly below this resistance space, suggesting a fourth try to breach the extent could happen. Market analysts said that the asset’s response at this degree might decide whether or not the latest decline represents a short-term deviation, a retest from under, or the start of a chronic downward motion.
Some analysts have recognized similarities between Bitcoin’s present value motion and the sample noticed in 2021. In each situations, the asset exhibited a rounded prime formation, adopted by a pointy decline, a subsequent bounce, and continued downward strain, in line with technical evaluation stories.
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One analyst famous that the present assist degree being examined was additionally current throughout the 2021 cycle, when a breakdown from that degree triggered a major value decline. The analyst said that whereas a transfer towards prior peak ranges stays potential, such ranges have traditionally marked turning factors in market sentiment fairly than sustained power.
Technical analysts have introduced diverging interpretations of present market situations. One dealer recognized a possible bearish pennant formation on the weekly chart, suggesting a potential transfer towards decrease main assist ranges if the sample is confirmed.
$BTC 3D bullish divergence is now confirmed.
When this occurred the final 2 occasions, Bitcoin fashioned a backside. pic.twitter.com/z5X2HW0B2k
— Ted (@TedPillows) December 22, 2025
VanEck reported a decline in Bitcoin’s community hashrate as of mid-December, indicating decreased mining exercise. Such drops in hashrate have beforehand occurred close to market bottoms, in line with historic information, although analysts cautioned that previous patterns don’t assure future outcomes.
The cryptocurrency has struggled to regain momentum following the breach of its bull market channel, with market contributors monitoring key technical ranges to evaluate the potential for restoration or additional declines.
Bitcoin value and Christmas rally narrative: what to anticipate
Since 2013, BTC has closed December up solely 5 occasions and down 7 occasions, but the common December return is round +4%, hiding swings from about +47% to −35%.
Aggregated Coinglass/Binance seasonality reveals December barely constructive on common (round +4% for BTC), which feeds the “Santa rally” meme, however the distribution is bimodal: sturdy rallies or sharp drawdowns, not mild drift.
Latest evaluation suggests the Santa impact is weakening: 2020’s enormous 12 months‑finish surge skews the stats, whereas the previous few years present a lot smaller and even detrimental vacation returns, so treating “Christmas rally” as an edge is mediocre at greatest.
Learn extra: Bitmine’s Ethereum holdings surpass 4M because it inches nearer to five% provide goal
