Bitcoin sits close to $113,000 as of September 23, 2025, recovering from a pointy mid-month correction. The broader narrative round US coverage has shifted dramatically this 12 months, following President Trump’s government order making a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March.
Whereas the reserve already holds about 198,000 BTC in forfeited property, the decisive second will come if Congress passes laws to codify and increase it.
Now we have used superior chain prompts, market context, BTC provide, and OTC information on ChatGPT to foretell Bitcoin’s value response to totally different legislative outcomes. The evaluation reveals what the stream math tells us, and which market alerts merchants ought to watch.
US Bitcoin Reserve Timeline
What Congress is Debating
- Government order (March 2025): Established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and US Digital Asset Stockpile, inserting seized Bitcoin into everlasting federal custody and prohibiting gross sales.
- Pending payments: Senator Cynthia Lummis and Rep. Nick Begich launched the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act, which in some drafts proposes accumulating as much as 1 million BTC over 5 years.
- Key distinction: The chief order is reversible by a future president; laws would lock within the reserve, outline reporting guidelines, and doubtlessly mandate new purchases.
Why Mandated Bitcoin Shopping for Adjustments All the pieces
Put up-halving, new Bitcoin issuance is round 164,250 BTC yearly (~450/day). A congressional mandate to purchase 200,000 BTC per 12 months (~550/day) would exceed new provide.
Until long-term holders or miners promote aggressively, authorities demand must pull cash from OTC and change balances.
- OTC provide: Estimated close to 155,000 BTC in August 2025, down sharply from 2021.
- Trade balances: Hovering round 2.9 million BTC, trending decrease.
- End result: Any large-scale authorities program would tighten liquidity and drive greater clearing costs.
4 Bitcoin Reserve Situations To Contemplate
A. Codify Solely
If Congress merely turns the manager order into regulation with out a buy mandate, the Reserve turns into tougher to unwind politically. This might:
- Decrease the US regulatory threat premium.
- Help regular inflows into spot ETFs and company treasuries.
- Possible spark a modest grind greater, however not a structural provide shock.
B. Mandate With Gradual DCA
If laws requires ~200k BTC/12 months and Treasury executes progressively through OTC and ETFs, Bitcoin faces every day demand bigger than new issuance. Count on:
- Persistent upward drift, punctuated by sharp rallies on execution days.
- OTC stock thinning, forcing gradual migration of flows onto exchanges.
- Pullbacks turning into purchase alternatives as structural demand persists.
C. Mandate With Entrance-Loaded Shopping for
A front-loaded accumulation plan would shortly drain OTC shares and push Treasury instantly into change markets. This might:
- Set off sharp repricing greater, with volatility spikes and large slippage.
- Possible entice copycat bids from corporates, pensions, and sovereigns.
- Danger creating unsustainable short-term spikes adopted by consolidation.
D. Watered-Down Compromise
If laws is symbolic however avoids funding or buy targets, preliminary headlines might spark a short pop. Nonetheless:
- Merchants would seemingly fade the transfer.
- Market affect would resemble “promote the information” conduct.
Key Buying and selling Alerts To Monitor
- Invoice textual content: Search for express buy targets within the ultimate model.
- Treasury steerage: Begin date and cadence of any purchase program.
- ETF creations: Sustained internet inflows >$300M/day would affirm structural demand.
- OTC chatter: Widening spreads and sourcing delays level to provide stress.
- On-exchange depth: Shrinking 1% order e book depth alerts rising slippage threat.
BTC Worth Ranges To Watch
- Help: $110,000 (post-liquidation base), $100,000 (psychological anchor).
- Resistance: $116,000 (September excessive), $125,000 (breakout degree), and $150,000 (psychological magnet if mandate passes).
Potential Bitcoin Worth Ranges By US Reserve Laws Situation (2025)
Macro Overlay
Federal Reserve coverage, US greenback power, and gold correlations stay important. A dovish Fed and weaker greenback would amplify upside from reserve laws, whereas a hawkish shock might blunt the impact.
If Congress passes codification solely, Bitcoin ought to profit from diminished coverage threat and stronger ETF flows, seemingly sustaining an upward grind.
If lawmakers go a mandated accumulation program, the stream math is unambiguous. Authorities demand would outstrip new provide, and with OTC reserves already skinny, Bitcoin’s clearing value would wish to rise to attract out sellers.
The distinction between modest coverage tailwind and full provide shock hinges on the ultimate textual content of the regulation.
Merchants ought to put together for each outcomes. However in both case, US laws round a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would mark a historic shift in Bitcoin’s international function as a sovereign reserve asset.
The publish AI Predicts BTC Worth If US Congress Passes Bitcoin Reserve Laws appeared first on BeInCrypto.
