$166,000 looks inevitable for Bitcoin, according to CryptoCon’s two-year Fibonacci roadmap

Bitcoin’s current worth strikes have intently adopted a two-year Fibonacci mannequin. In keeping with analyst CryptoCon, the following logical stage could possibly be round $166,000.

Fibonacci’s fingerprints on Bitcoin’s rise

Bitcoin’s (BTC) current all-time excessive close to $123,000 has triggered all the standard market questions. Some suppose the highest is in. Others imagine there’s extra room to develop.

As of this writing on Aug. 4, BTC has dropped to round $114,500, down about 7% from its current peak and roughly 4% over the previous seven days.

BTC worth chart | Supply: crypto.information

However, CryptoCon, a extensively adopted analyst, believes Bitcoin is following a repeating sample primarily based on Fibonacci extensions. His mannequin gives a path that Bitcoin has already adopted for practically two years. And if that path continues, the following vacation spot is probably not a shock in any respect.

The story begins in late 2022, when Bitcoin fell to round $15,500 after the FTX collapse. That was the low level of the present cycle. CryptoCon calls this Retrace Level Zero.

From there, Bitcoin started climbing in phases. In April 2023, BTC reached round $30,362, which aligned with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. It paused round that stage, moved sideways for a couple of months, then climbed once more.

In January 2024, it touched $46,831, matching the two.618 extension and after a small pullback, Bitcoin held that stage as assist.

Two extra key ranges adopted. In March and June 2024, Bitcoin touched the three.618 extension at $71,591, failing to interrupt via each occasions. It consolidated, similar to it had at earlier Fibonacci ranges.

Then, in January 2025, it broke previous that zone and reached $109,236, which matches the 4.618 extension. BTC’s current excessive of $123,000 stands above that stage however under the following. And importantly, $123,000 is just not a Fibonacci extension. It’s in between.

In keeping with CryptoCon, this makes it a transition zone. If the sample continues, the following logical step is the 5.618 stage, which lies at $166,754.

Why historical past nonetheless rhymes at $166,000

CryptoCon’s mannequin would possibly sound technical, however it’s not new. The identical Fibonacci construction has appeared in earlier Bitcoin cycles as properly.

In 2013, Bitcoin peaked round $1,150, which was the 5.618 extension from its 2012 breakout. In 2017, the highest close to $20,000 landed simply previous the 4.618 stage from the 2015 lows.

Even the 2021 cycle, which many referred to as irregular, topped close to $69000, nearly precisely on the 3.618 extension of the 2018 backside close to $3,200.

These repeated alignments counsel that Fibonacci ranges have acted like strain factors the place Bitcoin both pauses or reverses.

This brings us again to at the moment. From $15,500 to $30,362 was a couple of 95% achieve. From there to $46, 831 was round 54%. Then to $71, 591 was one other 53%. From $71,591 to $109,236 added roughly 52%.

These phases replicate how Bitcoin has climbed in well-defined bursts, usually pulling again at every stage earlier than persevering with upward. If the identical spacing applies once more, then a 52 p.c rise from the final stage places the following goal at $166,754, matching the 5.618 extension.

There are additionally non-technical elements that assist this concept. The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 diminished the provision issued to miners, an occasion that has traditionally led to larger costs within the following yr.

After the 2012 and 2016 halvings, Bitcoin rallied sharply over 12 to 18 months. We at the moment are 16 months into that post-halving window.

The result’s a market that’s transferring consistent with previous cycles, with each math and macro forces pointing to the identical subsequent stage.

Macro strikes and coverage shifts

Earlier Bitcoin cycles had been largely pushed by retail enthusiasm and loosely ruled alternate habits. However the present cycle is totally different. It’s formed as a lot by liquidity flows, macroeconomic insurance policies, and political path as it’s by technical indicators or on-chain patterns.

On the macro stage, the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to carry rates of interest within the vary of 4.25-4.5%. Inflation has declined from its 2022 peak however stays sticky. Core inflation continues to be round 3%, above the Fed’s 2% goal.

This has delayed any agency dedication to fee cuts. Financial knowledge has proven indicators of weakening, however the central financial institution stays cautious.

A key Shopper Worth Index report is due in mid-August, with expectations of two.9% for headline inflation and three% for core.

If these numbers are available in decrease, markets could start to cost in a possible fee minimize by the fourth quarter. However till then, coverage stays tight, and markets are responding extra to knowledge than hypothesis.

On the regulatory aspect, the U.S. has began to sign a shift in tone. In July 2025, the GENIUS Act lastly handed, providing a authorized framework for stablecoins and defining digital asset classifications extra clearly.

Across the identical time, a pilot program referred to as the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was accepted for funding, which might permit the federal authorities to carry Bitcoin as a part of its broader asset portfolio.

Enforcement actions have additionally slowed, with the SEC pausing a number of circumstances. The path now seems to be towards integration and regulation, not restriction.

ETF demand exhibits how robust that integration already is. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Belief now holds round 740,000 BTC, with an estimated $85 billion in belongings. It ranks among the many largest ETFs ever launched.

Throughout all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, complete belongings have reached practically $150 billion. That represents roughly 6.5% of Bitcoin’s complete market cap and provides establishments management over a couple of in each fifteen Bitcoin at the moment in circulation.

All of this helps a backdrop the place institutional demand can develop with out friction, and that demand continues to rise.

Behavioral clues and what comes subsequent

The $166,000 goal drawn from CryptoCon’s Fibonacci mannequin could seem purely structural, however current observations from different analysts counsel the tempo of motion could possibly be influenced by behavioral and seasonal variables.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, in a current tweet, highlighted a constant seasonal pattern noticed in each prior post-halving yr: Bitcoin posted positive aspects in each July and August, adopted by a correction in September and a bounce in October.

The sample appeared in 2013, 2017, and 2021. In every occasion, a robust summer time interval gave strategy to a short-term pullback earlier than the uptrend resumed.

To date in 2025, July has already closed with a 7.22% achieve. If August continues larger, the pattern may play out once more with a modest decline in September.

One other crypto analyst, Axel, supplied a contrasting view centered on market construction somewhat than seasonality. He tracked the harmonic imply of two metrics — NUPL and MVRV — which collectively replicate the common unrealized revenue ranges throughout holders.

In each March and December 2024, these metrics peaked at 1.95 and 1.99, respectively, simply earlier than market corrections. The newest studying stands at 1.73, forming a decrease excessive.

Holders stay in revenue, however many look like progressively lowering their danger publicity. The implication is that whereas the uptrend could proceed, every new excessive may face stronger promoting strain.

Axel expects two extra rallies earlier than the market enters a slower section marked by weaker demand and steadier profit-taking.

Taken collectively, the technical mannequin nonetheless factors to $166,000, supported by historic cycle habits and ongoing ETF demand. Nevertheless, near-term corrections and macroeconomic modifications may affect how and when the market approaches that stage.

There may be by no means a certainty that occasions will unfold as analysts count on. Crypto markets are risky, and momentum can shift rapidly. Commerce correctly and by no means make investments greater than you possibly can afford to lose.