It’s virtually unattainable to begin a dialog with the Venezuelan dealer Alberto Cárdenas and never ask him on the outset: how do you see bitcoin? And this was no exception.
His view of the digital asset market is at all times marked by acuity, one thing that has allowed him up to now to anticipate bearish or bullish actions.
Though he doesn’t have a crystal ball for clairvoyance and divination, the analyst believes that bitcoin has not but deserted its 4-year market cycles, that 2026 will probably be a bearish 12 months, that altseasons will not be like earlier than and most significantly: he anticipate a brand new all-time excessive (ATH) for bitcoin as quickly as November.
The latter below just one situation: that america Supreme Court docket rolls again all of the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, which might be a severe blow to North American financial coverage.
“There’s a likelihood that the courtroom will rule towards the tariffs and block this complete situation. That would generate a short-term impact of weak point within the greenback, as a result of america must repay every part it has charged for tariffs till now. It might be a state of affairs that will trigger bitcoin, gold and belongings which have a damaging correlation with the greenback to rise in value,” Cárdenas defined to CriptoNoticias.
What the specialist perceives is that the market is in a lateralization course of with a bearish bias on account of deterioration in liquidity and a macro surroundings that’s not being favorable.
He believes that if macroeconomic situations change, corresponding to the problem of tariffs and the tip of the US authorities shutdown, then a bullish rally would come for bitcoin.
It should be remembered that bitcoin reached its historic most value on October 6 when it was quoted at $126,000 per unit, a truth reported by this publishing home. Nevertheless, presently the digital asset is struggling to not fall beneath $100,000.
Bitcoin completes its 4-year cycle and a bear market is coming
There are a number of opinions within the cryptocurrency ecosystem about if he conventional 4 12 months bitcoin cycle ended or remains to be in power.
Those that not take into account it see that institutional funding and new laws, primarily from america, remodeled it and the “three bullish and one bearish years” marked by the halving is not fulfilled. Cárdenas is on the alternative aspect:
The cycle has been fulfilled up to now very precisely and now, understanding that part of the cycle, we must be near a historic most. For me, a market ceiling is shut taking into consideration that variable that’s the cycle and having a 12 months 2026 that I see as bearish for BTC. We should put together for a tough 2026 for bitcoin, it will likely be corrective.
Alberto Cárdenas, Venezuelan dealer
What it does guarantee is that, when trying on the international macroeconomic panorama, the present state of affairs is completely different from previous cycles. On this level he identified that the most essential variable is that there’s not an abundance of liquidity that was had in earlier cycles.
“Proper now we’ve international uncertainty. There is a vital situation with the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration that got here into impact beginning in August. We have no idea how the financial system will react within the coming months,” he stated.
In relation to the altseasons, our interviewee affirms that these will not be like earlier than. His view is that there’s a rotation within the cryptocurrency house not supported by liquidity.
“Now you might be seeing issues just like the rally in ZCash. That is an unimaginable, however asymmetrical, punctual rally in some currencies, when you observe weak point in XRP, you might be seeing weak point in different issues. What there’s is an inside rotation that normally occurs in virtually all markets.”
Relating to the extended closure of america authorities, Cárdenas commented that, though these conditions normally don’t have an effect on the markets as a lot, on this event, as they lengthen longer than they need to, there are issues to keep in mind such because the opacity of official knowledge.
Inventory Market and tokenization in Venezuela
Cárdenas has at all times thought of Venezuela as a “laboratory” in relation to cryptocurrencies. It’s because, as our editorial this week factors out, in recent times the nation has taken a number of paths throughout the world of digital belongings: from laws, adoption after which prohibition of mining, creation of its personal token (the petro) to the present effervescence over the Tether stablecoin, USDT.
Past these realities, the dealer sees potential for the nation to start to become involved with the tokenization of real-world belongings (RWA), which may open the doorways to an unprecedented market.
Actually, the Caracas Inventory Alternate, as he commented, is already getting concerned within the academic facet with the Venezuelan Institute of Capital Markets.
«A course on tokenization was just lately given, however there’s nonetheless no affirmation about potential tasks of this sort. “I discover it very attention-grabbing that the Caracas inventory trade, for instance, is absolutely dedicated to noticeably understanding the problem of tokenization,” added the analyst.
Given this international pattern of digitization of actual property, monetary merchandise and even artistic endeavors, Cárdenas stated that it might be essential to rethink the enterprise as a result of it considers that this monetary enterprise house is altering.
I feel that the previous mannequin primarily based on transactional fee prices, like somebody may need in a brokerage home, is dying, for my part, it’s dying and companies have gotten extra environment friendly. The enterprise has to go to one thing else, in all probability custody, safety, in all probability consulting or one thing else, however that previous transactional enterprise I not see enterprise there.
Alberto Cárdenas, Venezuelan dealer
When requested what areas he sees with potential to discover tokenization in Venezuela, he stated that actual property is an “extremely attention-grabbing house.”
“If that occurs, you’ll give liquidity and fluidity to a market that’s by nature illiquid.” The opposite areas that he sees with prospects are: the agroindustrial sector, commodities, inventories, shares of firms listed on the inventory market.
«The vary is big, however you at all times have to consider the optimistic impression it might have on the nation. “If it will give it liquidity, dynamism and even finally be a bridge to draw overseas funding.”
