For Willy Woo, there are errors of interpretation in on-chain metrics.
In line with different analysts, bitcoin adjustments fingers from previous whales to establishments.
Whereas the value of bitcoin (BTC) stays above USD 100,000, a brand new debate is opening up amongst analysts in regards to the true which means of the current actions of historical currencies on the community by previous “whales.”
On-chain knowledge exhibits an uptick in transfers from addresses inactive for greater than seven years, which some interpret as large sell-offs by so-called OG bitcoiners. These are early traders who amassed massive quantities within the early years of the Bitcoin protocol.
Nonetheless, Not all specialists agree with that studying. For Willy Woo, the “long-term headlines” metric now not works. He questions probably the most widespread interpretation of those metrics. As he explains, the long-term provide of holders (LTH) indicator “has turn out to be out of date” and results in faulty conclusions.
«The time period ‘long-term holder’ is a false impression. It’s outlined as any foreign money that has been held at one deal with for greater than 5 months,” says Woo. “Everyone seems to be alarmed by a graphic with a deceptive identify,” he provides.
For Woo, what many interpret as gross sales by former traders would, in actuality, be a “custody rotation” course of. That’s, the switch of cash to new storage buildings or to company entities comparable to treasuries.
«The drop in long-term provide displays a rotation of custody, not gross sales. This phenomenon was a lot higher in 2017. Actually, it’s a signal of robust bull markets,” says the analyst.
Woo additional explains that actions of historical currencies—comparable to these detected within the Glassnode and CryptoQuant charts— They could correspond to easy safety updatesadjustments in direction of Taproot addresses or the creation of company autos that use bitcoin as collateral.
«Not every thing that appears a’dump‘It’s,’ he insists. «There are previous bitcoiners shifting their cash to banks to guard them from bodily assaults, or offering them as collateral for loans. In lots of instances, there may be not a sale, however moderately a restructuring,” he emphasizes.
combined opinions
From a unique perspective, Charles Edwards, founding father of Capriole Investments, argues that the information on-chain They’re clear in exhibiting that a number of the largest historic whales are literally making gross sales.
«OG whales are promoting. “This chart provides a very good visible of what number of tremendous whales are pulling out of bitcoin,” he stated. This, referring to the Glassnode chart beneath, which successfully exhibits a notable enhance within the orange and crimson traces over the previous few months, akin to actions of over $100 million and $500 million respectively, from previous addresses.
For his or her half, Arab Chain analysts detected a pointy enhance within the indicator Trade Influx – Spent Output Age Bands of Binance on November 4, reaching its highest degree since July. That metric measures the quantity of BTC getting into exchanges, classifying them in accordance with the age of the cash being moved.
As seen within the graph beneath, the rise got here primarily from the three to 7 12 months previous teamsrepresenting massive portfolios of veteran traders. Any such exercise is often a “short-term warning” signal, the report notes.
Nonetheless, from Arab Chain they make clear that the market doesn’t present important promoting stress: “The value stays near USD 106,000 regardless of the motion of previous currencies, confirming that the market goes via a interval of silent redistribution, not large gross sales,” they level out.
Daniel Andrés Peláez: “Not each motion is a sale”
Venezuelan analyst and investor Daniel Andrés Peláez shares a imaginative and prescient nearer to that of Woo, underscoring the necessity to interpret knowledge with context.
“If a long-term path strikes bitcoin, that does not instantly imply it’s promoting. It may very well be a change of custody, a restructuring or a switch to a chilly pockets,” he explains to CriptoNoticias.
Peláez highlights that rotations in direction of institutional instructions or in direction of extra handy authorized buildings are more and more widespread, particularly for security and regulatory causes.
“Bitcoin doesn’t go away the ecosystem, it merely adjustments fingers strategically, not speculatively,” he added.
The analyst additionally warns that different macroeconomic elements can clarify the current market stagnation: choices by the Federal Reserve (FED), the energy of the greenback or the volatility within the derivatives markets.
“Typically the value doesn’t go down as a result of somebody sells quite a bit, however as a result of there may be not sufficient buying energy on the opposite facet,” he factors out.
Accumulation of enormous whales helps the value
In the meantime, Brazilian analyst GugaOnChain, from CryptoQuant, assures that current actions replicate a switch from medium-sized traders to the biggest entities out there.
«Between October 24 and November 7, massive whales — with greater than 10,000 BTC — doubled (and extra) their holdings, whereas medium whales decreased their accumulation. This exhibits that robust capital is absorbing the availability,” he particulars.
In line with his evaluation, This dynamic explains the resilience of the value above USD 100,000regardless of the obvious distribution of former house owners.
“The aggressive accumulation of enormous whales acts as assist, limiting the bearish potential and getting ready the bottom for the subsequent bullish section,” summarizes GugaOnChain.
The CryptoQuant graph beneath exhibits that between October 24 and November 7, 2025, massive whales (holders of greater than 10,000 BTC) doubled their reserves, accumulating 36,019 BTC. This, on the time when The promoting stress of the medium-sized whales decreased.
This habits displays a section of absorption and repositioning of enormous traders that contributed to protecting the value of bitcoin above $100,000.
Redistribution, not capitulation
In gentle of metrics and skilled opinions, the rising consensus is that the bitcoin market goes via a strategy of structural redistribution moderately than a sell-off.
Graphs and knowledge on-chain present important exercise from previous addresses, however the value habits—steady above USD 100,000— means that the launched provide is being absorbed by institutional actors and enormous accumulators.
Within the phrases of Peláez, “it could look like a sale, however many occasions it’s only a switch to extra regulated areas.”
For now, the market stays resilient, and the controversy over whether or not the “previous whales” are promoting or just rearranging your custody stays open.
