Bitcoin’s share of provide final moved a minimum of one 12 months in the past reached 63.3% on Sept. 18, up 0.98 share factors from 62.32% on Aug. 18, in keeping with Maketo’s HODL-wave knowledge.
HODL waves group Bitcoin’s unspent transaction outputs into age bands primarily based on their final on-chain motion. The rising one-year share subsequently reveals that extra provide now sits in older bands. Present-month shopping for and deliberate withdrawal from the market require separate proof.
The underlying bands level to a particular mechanism. Cash that final moved roughly a 12 months in the past can enter the one-to-two-year bracket just by remaining nonetheless lengthy sufficient to cross the boundary.
What Bitcoin HODL waves measure
The one-to-two-year band elevated to 14.57% of provide from 13.52% between Aug. 18 and Sept. 18, a achieve of 1.05 share factors. That was the biggest optimistic change among the many cohorts already older than one 12 months.
Over the identical interval, the six-to-twelve-month band fell to 17.53% from 19.10%. Glassnode’s Sept. 18 snapshot confirmed the identical newest values for each bands.
The paired strikes are per cash crossing the one-year boundary. Every band is a internet share after cash age into it, age out of it or transfer on-chain and reset to the youngest cohort, leaving the identification and gross move of the underlying models unresolved.
Current motion additionally eased. Cash final moved inside one month accounted for 7.03% of provide on Sept. 18, down 0.27 share factors from 7.30% a month earlier.
Below Glassnode’s methodology, an unmoved output advances into older bands because it crosses every age threshold. Motion resets the clock.
Final-movement age leaves useful possession and intent unresolved. A switch between wallets managed by the identical particular person or custodian could make an output look younger even when possession has not modified. Misplaced cash can stay within the oldest bands with out representing a deliberate resolution to carry.
Coinbase offered a sensible instance in November 2025 when it warned that an inside pockets migration would create massive on-chain volumes unrelated to market circumstances. That episode illustrates attribution uncertainty and isn’t supplied as the reason for the present shift.
The Sept. 18 readings assist a restricted conclusion: Bitcoin’s on-chain age distribution grew older whereas the share moved inside a month declined. Accessible-for-sale provide and liquid-supply tightening stay unmeasured.
Figuring out a fresh-accumulation thesis wants corroboration from entity-adjusted steadiness adjustments, alternate flows, and spending conduct. Till these measures align, the rising one-year wave is an growing old sign reasonably than proof of recent demand.
