Bitcoin could also be getting into the later levels of the continuing bear market and forming a long-term market backside.
Particularly, the latest drop to round $57,000 this month might change into this cycle’s equal of the $16,000–$18,000 low seen in late 2022. Whereas on-chain information suggests the bottoming course of is progressing, key affirmation indicators have but to look.
Why $58K Might Mark This Cycle’s Backside
Market watcher Seth has mentioned there are rising indicators that Bitcoin’s high-timeframe (HTF) macro backside is already in place. “There are indicators that the HTF macro backside is in. $58K is the brand new $18K,” he wrote on X.
Seth famous that he accurately recognized Bitcoin’s $16,000 backside throughout the 2022 bear market. He mentioned he wouldn’t be stunned if Bitcoin had as soon as once more established its cycle low.
After bottoming in 2022, Bitcoin climbed steadily. It reached about $73,650 in March 2024 earlier than rallying to an all-time excessive of $126,200 in October 2025.
Bitcoin Rebounds From July Low
Notably, Bitcoin fell to $57,747 on July 1, its lowest stage but on this cycle. It then rebounded to round $64,600 by July 5.
As of immediately, Bitcoin trades at $63,872, up about 4% over the previous week. Nevertheless, it stays down 27% year-to-date and remains to be about 49.4% under its October 2025 document excessive. That means the restoration remains to be incomplete.
Glassnode: Backside Is Forming, however Affirmation Is Nonetheless Missing
In a latest research, Glassnode mentioned Bitcoin remains to be in “deep worth” territory after buying and selling under each the True Market Imply and the Brief-Time period Holder Value Foundation for almost 5 months.
The analytics agency mentioned long-term holder (LTH) promoting has intensified. Losses now account for 43% of complete realized worth, with realized losses reaching about $280 million per day, the best stage since December 2022.
Glassnode’s chart additionally exhibits that greater than 5.5 million BTC held by long-term traders is presently at a loss. Related ranges had been seen close to main market bottoms in earlier bear markets, earlier than Bitcoin began recovering.
Nevertheless, demand stays weak. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are nonetheless seeing web outflows, whereas each day buying and selling quantity of $650 million to $950 million is about 80% under the October 2025 peak.
On the identical time, derivatives markets have change into barely extra optimistic. The put/name ratio has fallen to its lowest stage of 2026, though choices merchants are nonetheless pricing in draw back threat.
In sum, Glassnode mentioned Bitcoin could also be within the ultimate levels of forming a market backside. Nevertheless, it added that long-term holder promoting must ease earlier than an enduring restoration will be confirmed.
