Whereas bitcoin (BTC) has been buying and selling between 60,000 and 70,000 {dollars} (USD) for 3 weeks, as of February 27, 2026, institutional buyers within the derivatives market are positioning themselves for attainable worth declines beneath this sturdy psychological threshold.
As Jean-David Péquignot, director of the Deribit derivatives platform, defined to the press, “ETF (traded fund) holders and company treasuries are shopping for 6-month and 1-year put choices with an train worth of $60,000 or much less as insurance coverage for his or her portfolios.”
The assertion comes in opposition to a backdrop of the $60,000 put choice accruing round $1.5 billion in open curiosity. It’s in regards to the highest quantity recorded amongst all strike costs and maturities on the platform, as proven within the following graph.
Put choices permit you to promote bitcoin at a preset worth even whether it is buying and selling beneath it. On this sense, they operate as draw back safety for buyers who purchase them. The Deribit alternate concentrates about 80% of cryptocurrency choices buying and selling, so its exercise displays market methods.
The institutional weight in bitcoin explains a part of the expansion of this protection. US spot ETFs maintain round 1.26 million BTC, about 6% of the provision. Publicly traded firms, in the meantime, maintain about 1.14 million BTC, equal to five.7% of the whole.
Though the value of bitcoin rebounded to $70,000 this week, Péquignot famous that demand for protection continued. 30-day places nonetheless commerce at a roughly 7% volatility premium over calls. That “signifies that sensible cash is continuous to pay for draw back safety reasonably than chasing the rally,” he stated.
Subsequently, the manager added that an strategy to the extent of $60,000 might result in choices promoting, which might put downward strain on the value of BTC. That course of would permit buyers to rebalance publicity towards impartial positions.
Bearish expectations abound for BTC
This positioning happens whereas bitcoin is buying and selling nearly 50% beneath its all-time excessive of $126,000, reached on October 6, 2025. That peak was recorded within the 12 months after the latest halving. Traditionally, this era has marked the top of bullish cycles and the start of deep corrections near 80%.
Because of this sample, as reported by CriptoNoticias, it’s estimated that the bear market might proceed, additionally motivated by the macroeconomic state of affairs. The unpredictability of President Donald Trump’s tariff coverage and the uncertainty over whether or not rates of interest will fall is producing danger aversion within the markets.
On this context, bets are rising in prediction markets on a attainable fall in the direction of $40,000. In the meantime, analysts like Willy Woo preserve that The underside of this bearish development might happen within the fourth quarter of 2026and attain round $45,000.
Woo warns, nonetheless, that if the worldwide market has a powerful correction, bitcoin might go to decrease ranges resembling $30,000 and even $16,000, an space that was the bearish backside of the crypto winter of 2022.
Even so, long-term bullish expectations stay, pushed by the shortage of the asset and the curiosity of institutional buyers. Bitcoin has a scheduled issuance that’s reduce each 4 years by halving, which facilitates its rise within the face of demand. Subsequently, it’s seen by many as digital gold.
