If bitcoin had been to regain its all-time excessive, it could be up greater than 85% from right here.
There are expectations of decrease costs for bitcoin this yr.
With the decline that bitcoin (BTC) goes by way of, expectations abound {that a} bearish cycle has begun that can provide shopping for alternatives at decrease costs. Nevertheless, from a long-term perspective, some market contributors take into account that present costs are already enticing even when the asset had been to document additional declines, in accordance with risk-reward evaluation.
This February 20, 2026, bitcoin has been buying and selling round $68,000 (USD) for 3 weeks, after falling to $60,000, 52% beneath its all-time excessive of $126,000 reached on October 6, 2025.
Such conduct feeds the concept the underside of the cycle has not but been reachedon condition that in earlier crypto winters, bitcoin skilled corrections of round 80%, as seen beneath. Such a drop from its document would place it at $25,000.
Nevertheless, as Alex “Axel” Cuesta, investor and founding father of Medusa Capital, an academic firm on bitcoin funding, explains, Ready for decrease costs is just not at all times your best option.
Within the earlier crypto winter, in 2022, “everybody was ultra-bearish whereas the value was falling,” he famous on February 9. When the value fell to $15,000 with the FTX chapter, he recalled that some had been predicting it could drop to $10,000 and even $4,000. However, such projections didn’t materialize.
“The value bottomed out and rose from USD 15,000 to USD 72,000 in simply over a yr. Many, as they believed we had been going to USD 10,000, by no means purchased, making one of many worst choices of their lives,” Cuesta stated from his perspective.
On this sense, the investor considers that The market is approaching an analogous dilemma. “If the value falls to USD 40,000, nice, they are going to be magnificent purchases. However I see that they’re already beginning to ship it very low and the sentiment could be very bearish,” he stated.
The significance of DCA
Cuesta acknowledged that The danger-reward (RR) of shopping for bitcoin with a multi-year horizon is beginning to look favorablewhatever the uncertainty concerning the precise floor stage.
“The RR of shopping for years forward is optimistic. I do not know the place BTC will backside out however what I do know is that now everybody would pay to have purchased in 2022 at 15,000, 20,000, 30,000 and 40,000 {dollars},” stated the businessman. Alongside these strains, in his opinion, when the asset is buying and selling at significantly larger ranges, “it won’t matter whether or not to procure at 60,000, 55,000 or 75,000 {dollars}.”
In truth, a purchase order at present costs round $68,000, would suggest an appreciation of 85% if it recovered its document ultimately. “And I will not even let you know in case your purpose is just not the all-time excessive however somewhat larger costs,” Cuesta stated.
The investor additionally warned concerning the danger of making an attempt to anticipate the market backside. “The error can have been to attend for the $40,000 and it by no means arrived. Do not underestimate the facility of the DCA and do not assume you are smarter than the market,” he stated.
The greenback price averaging (DCA) technique consists of creating periodic purchases to, pardon the redundancy, common the full acquisition price. This method is particularly used throughout worth pullbacks to keep away from hitting the underside of the decline with a single entry.
Technical and macro evaluation warn of weak spot within the quick time period
From a complementary perspective, technical evaluation continues to replicate fragility out there, in accordance with Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse—OANDA’s evaluation service—. The sustained rejection of the $70,000 stage and the break of the ascending low construction “level to additional decline,” he stated.
If the bullish momentum doesn’t get better, the specialist considers a pullback in the direction of $56,625 believableas reported by CriptoNoticias. It attributes a part of the deterioration to destructive macroeconomic catalysts, together with rising geopolitical pressure and elevated danger aversion amongst traders.
This surroundings has been influenced by tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, who seeks to get different governments to assist strategic initiatives of his administration, together with the proposal to accumulate Greenland. On the similar time, conflicts within the Center East and Ukraine proceed to extend international uncertainty.
Para el analista on-chain Willy Woo ,bitcoin is starting a bearish part linked to the worldwide liquidity contraction. Beneath this studying, the conduct of the asset may anticipate weak spot within the inventory markets and result in decrease costs.
Whereas the quick time period continues to be marked by prospects of decline, some long-term traders view intervals of this sort as worthwhile for accumulation. These views, primarily based on bullish fundamentals resembling their shortage, should consider the potential dangers when working.
