Bitcoin’s value will greater than double throughout the subsequent six months, swelling to $250,000, in keeping with Bitcoin billionaire and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, as U.S. President Donald Trump strikes away from the market-rattling influence of tariffs towards different fiscal insurance policies.
“Midterm elections are arising within the U.S.,” he advised Decrypt at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas. “Whereas the Trump administration went laborious on tariffs and was taking this market ache for the final three months, that narrative has to shift.”
As an alternative of pursuing commerce insurance policies that might weigh on financial development and doubtlessly harm People’ potential to afford on a regular basis items, Hayes—who has made his fair proportion of daring predictions—argued that the president must present he “introduced goodies for the inhabitants” to assist Republicans on the poll field come 2026.
“They’re going to speed up the cash printing,” Hayes stated, referring to the Federal Reserve—an unbiased authorities company that’s primarily liable for managing the U.S. cash provide.
Amongst insurance policies that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has teased as fiscal stimulus, Hayes highlighted potential modifications to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-backed mortgage giants which were below authorities oversight because the 2008 monetary disaster.
If the government-sponsored enterprises are allowed to go public and lift capital once more, that will inject low-cost liquidity into the housing market, Hayes stated. Permitting them to “lever up their steadiness sheets” would additionally make mortgages extra reasonably priced, he stated. Amongst knock-on results, elevated housing exercise might theoretically spur financial development and assist risk-on property.
On high of that, discussions surrounding a so-called supplemental leverage ratio, or SLR, exemption for U.S. Treasuries are bullish, Hayes stated. In essence, the White Home needs to ease leverage ratios for banks in the case of their publicity to U.S. debt.
“That enables the U.S. banking system to use infinite leverage to purchase treasury bonds is clearly very optimistic for world capital markets,” he added.
Lastly, Hayes sees the federal government shifting from tariffs to capital controls to assist American manufacturing in a extra politically palatable means. As an alternative of taxing imports, the U.S. might tax international authorities holdings of bonds, equities, and land that stem from commerce long-running commerce imbalances.
How that might drive governments towards gold and Bitcoin is a central theme of his newest essay, which additionally predicts that Bitcoin will hit $1 million earlier than 2028. Earlier this month, Hayes predicted that Bitcoin would hit $150,000 this 12 months, versus $250,000.
Billionaire investor Tim Draper made an identical name this month, highlighting regulatory tailwinds for the asset below the Trump administration. Bitcoin’s path to $250,000 this 12 months will even be bolstered by myriad corporations adopting Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, he stated.
With Congress weighing legislative initiatives that might doubtlessly set up guidelines for stablecoins and create a regulatory taxonomy for a lot of cash, Hayes additionally advised Decrypt that Ethereum will make its personal comeback this 12 months, rising as excessive as $5,000.
Edited by James Rubin
